瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong remained unchanged compared to last week. As the urea price rises, downstream follow - up has slowed down [6]. - Some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, increasing domestic urea production. Next week, no enterprise devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped devices may resume. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the change in production is expected to be limited [6]. - The agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with only limited follow - up in the reserve demand for green - turning fertilizers in some local areas. The industrial sector maintains rigid - demand procurement, and the continuous progress of the compound fertilizer industry provides support for urea. Some urea enterprises have balanced production and sales, and some have accelerated their shipment speed. However, as the price rises, the downstream chasing trend may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1830 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong was 1720 - 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Downstream follow - up slowed as the price rose [6]. - Market Outlook: Production is expected to change little due to resumed devices and possible short - term failures. Agricultural demand is in the off - season with limited increase, and industrial demand maintains rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer industry supports urea. Some enterprises' inventory decreased this week, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1830 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.79% [12]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of January 16, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 28 [15]. - Position Analysis: Not elaborated further in the provided content. - Warehouse Receipts: As of January 16, there were 13355 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 505 compared to last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of January 15, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 1770 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [26]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of January 15, the FOB China price of urea was 402.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton compared to last week [30]. - Basis: As of January 15, the urea basis was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton compared to last week [35]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of January 14, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton (unchanged). As of January 15, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units (unchanged) [38]. - Industry: As of January 15, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 140.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons (2.44%), and the capacity utilization rate was 85.25%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. As of January 15, the port sample inventory was 13.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons (4.29%). As of January 14, the total enterprise inventory was 98.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61 tons (3.53%). In November 2025, urea exports were 60.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [41][44][47]. - Downstream: As of January 15, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.08%, a week - on - week increase of 2.91 percentage points, and is expected to remain stable with a narrow - range increase. As of January 15, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 62.18%, a week - on - week increase of 7.83 percentage points [52].