Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs rebounded, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.78% weekly [6][9] - In mid - January, the supply pressure is average, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end. The peak of curing and enema activities has passed, but there is still some demand. The pre - Spring Festival stocking is about to start, so the overall decline in demand is limited, and there may be a small peak later. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm affects the price. Currently, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, suppressing the price, but market sentiment is okay, and with the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price runs steadily, supporting the near - month futures price to fluctuate slightly stronger [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of live pigs rebounded, and the main contract 2603 rose 1.78% weekly [6][9] - Market Outlook: In mid - January, the supply pressure is average. The peak of curing and enema activities has passed, but there's still some demand. The pre - Spring Festival stocking is about to start. The overall decline in demand is limited, and there may be a small peak later. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm affects the price. Currently, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, suppressing the price, but market sentiment is okay, and with the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price runs steadily, supporting the near - month futures price to fluctuate slightly stronger [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Movement: Futures rebounded this week, and the main contract 2603 rose 1.78% weekly [7][9] - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of January 16, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures decreased by 12 hands compared to last week, reaching 51,537 hands. The number of live pig futures warehouse receipts was 815, a decrease of 103 compared to the previous week [11][15] - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 175, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 780 [20] Spot Market - Base Difference: This week, the base difference of the live pig January contract was 1,100 yuan/ton, and that of the March contract was 1,220 yuan/ton [25] - Live Pig and Piglet Prices: This week, the national average price of live pigs was 12.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.31 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 25.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.66 yuan/kg from last week [30] - Pork and Sows Prices: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the week of January 8, the national average pork price was 23 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [37] - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: As of the week of January 7, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.51, an increase of 0.11 from the previous week, but still below 6:1 [42] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Sow Inventory: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons, a decrease of 1.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.18% month - on - month and 0.47% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.19% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year [47] - Live Pig Inventory: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it was 1.5558 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17% [51] - Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: According to Mysteel data, in December, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 11.7829 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.68% and a year - on - year increase of 6.64%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it was 0.548 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.39% and a year - on - year increase of 13.67%. This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.5 kg, an increase of 0.18 kg from last week [55] Industry - wide - Breeding Profits: As of January 16, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 50.66 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 7.39 yuan/head, an increase of 18.93 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.08 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.21 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 0.29 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/head [58] - Pork Imports: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [65] - Substitute Products: As of the week of January 16, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of January 15, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.64 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [69] - Feed: As of January 15, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,204.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.57 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,363.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.96 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of January 16, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 906.44, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. In December 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.39% month - on - month and increased by 69.09% year - on - year [74][77][83] - CPI: As of December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [88] Downstream - Slaughter Enterprises: In the third week of 2026, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 35.91%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.14 percentage points, with the operating rate fluctuating between 35.33 - 36.10%. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.61%, an increase of 0.07% from last week; the frozen product storage rate was 17.48%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week [91] - Demand: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 24.04%. In November 2025, the national catering income was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [96] Live Pig Stocks - The document shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not provide specific analysis [100]
生猪市场周报：生猪现价平稳，关注出栏节奏-20260116
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-16 09:21