贵金属市场周报-20260116

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Precious Metals Market Weekly Report" [2] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Authors: Researcher Liao Hongbin, Assistant Researcher Xu Dingfeng [3] Group 2: Weekly Key Points Summary - Tariff situation heats up as the US will impose a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives from January 15, 2026, which may marginally increase the risk - aversion premium [5] - US PPI and core PPI in November 2025 both rose 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver [5] - The US Department of Justice plans to conduct a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, but Trump has no plan to fire him, easing market concerns [5] - The December non - farm payrolls were less than expected, indicating a cooling US labor market, leading traders to expect three interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting before May [5] - The Middle East situation has a temporary easing, but geopolitical risks remain high due to Iran's threat to US military bases and sporadic escalation in the Russia - Ukraine front [5] - In the medium term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy on dips in the long - term, while being cautious of short - term corrections [5] - The resistance level for London Gold is 4650 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 4300 US dollars per ounce; for London Silver, the resistance level is 95 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 70 US dollars per ounce [5] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued to be strong this week, with a continuous short - squeeze in the silver market [6] - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract 2604 closed at 22,483 yuan per kilogram, up 20.03% for the week; the Shanghai Gold main contract 2604 closed at 1,032.32 yuan per gram, up 2.57% for the week [10] - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,074.80 tons, up 0.72% month - on - month; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,062 tons, down 0.90% month - on - month [11][15] - As of January 6, 2025 (the latest), both COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased. The COMEX gold net position was 227,632 contracts, down 1.50% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 29,271 contracts, down 2.63% month - on - month [16][20] - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 15, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 6.74 yuan per gram, with a basis rate of - 0.65%; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 210 yuan per kilogram, with a basis rate of - 0.93% [21][23] - This week, the gold and silver inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36,132,901.14 ounces, down 0.70% month - on - month; the SHFE gold inventory was 97,653 kilograms, down 0.05% month - on - month; the COMEX silver inventory was 435,671,453 ounces, down 3.0% month - on - month; the SHFE silver inventory was 620,262 kilograms, down 10.30% month - on - month [24][28] Group 4: Silver Industry Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of silver and silver ore sand increased. The import volume of Chinese silver was 263,505.88 kilograms, up 9.90% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, up 21.23% month - on - month [30][34] - Due to the increasing demand for silver in the semiconductor industry, the production of integrated circuits has been rising, and the year - on - year growth rate has stabilized. As of November 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [36][40] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was 1,164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [42][44] - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply and demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver, while the investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month. The World Silver Institute predicted that the global total silver supply in 2025 would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces; the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% year - on - year to about 1,120 million ounces; the supply - demand gap in 2025 was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a decrease of about 53% month - on - month [48][50] Group 6: Gold Supply and Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs has increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continue to buy gold [52] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound from the low level within the oscillation range [56] - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility decreased [61] - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [65] - In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [69]