铝类市场周报：淡季影响逐步显现，铝类或将有所承压-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the raw material price is falling and supply is increasing, while demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable. The recommendation is to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable but demand is cautious due to the off - season and high prices. The suggestion is to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum, the supply is converging and demand is weakening. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion in the options market [69]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Highlights Summary - Market Review: Shanghai aluminum fell from a high, with a weekly change of - 1.66% to 23925 yuan/ton; alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 3.24% to 2751 yuan/ton; cast aluminum's main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 1.09% to 22735 yuan/ton [5][7]. - Market Outlook and Views: Alumina has an oversupply situation with stable demand; electrolytic aluminum has stable supply and cautious demand; cast aluminum has converging supply and weakening demand. Corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Aluminum Futures: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 23850 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the LME aluminum closing price on January 15 was 3167.5 dollars/ton, up 76.5 dollars/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.63, down 0.22 from January 9 [10][11]. - Alumina and Cast Aluminum Futures: As of January 16, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2627 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.61%) from January 9; the cast aluminum alloy's main closing price was 22735 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton (1.09%) from January 9 [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum Positions: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 697874 lots, down 40763 lots (5.52%) from January 9; the net position of the top 20 was 4602 lots, up 87729 lots from January 9 [17]. - Futures Spreads: As of January 16, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 825 yuan/ton, up 1185 yuan/ton from January 9; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 76845 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton from January 9 [20]. - Spot Markets: Alumina spot prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang fell; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose; the A00 aluminum ingot spot price fell, and the spot discount increased [24][27]. 3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, the SHFE inventory and domestic social inventory increased; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [30]. - Bauxite: The import volume of bauxite in November 2025 increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the nine - port inventory increased [35]. - Scrap Aluminum: The scrap aluminum price in Shandong fell, the import volume increased in November 2025, and the export volume decreased [39]. - Alumina: The alumina output in November 2025 increased year - on - year, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [42]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum import volume in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, the output increased year - on - year, the in - production capacity, total capacity, and operating rate increased in December 2025 [45][49]. - Aluminum Products: The total output of aluminum products in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [53]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The production capacity of cast aluminum alloy decreased in December 2025 compared to the same period last year, and the output decreased [56]. - Aluminum Alloy: The total output of aluminum alloy in November 2025 increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and exports increased [59]. - Real Estate: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index declined, and the new construction and completion areas from January to November 2024 decreased year - on - year [62]. - Infrastructure and Automobiles: Infrastructure investment increased from January to November 2025; automobile sales and production in December 2025 decreased year - on - year [65]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion [69].