白糖日报-20260116

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Indian production increase suppresses international sugar prices. The number of sugar mills in Yunnan, China, starting production has increased year-on-year, and the arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota is at the second-highest level in the past five years. The short-term price fluctuates strongly, with increasing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the movement of raw sugar [3]. Key Points - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5304 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.11%; SR03 closed at 5258 with a daily decrease of 0.51% and a weekly decrease of 0.55%, etc. [4] - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 15, down 6 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was -11, down 6 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week, etc. [4] - Sugar basis: For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 75, up 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was -65, up 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [9]. - Sugar import prices: The quota - within price of Brazilian sugar was 4002, down 45 from the previous day and 77 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 5068, down 59 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [13]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - With the continuous upward shift of cotton prices, the spinning profits of domestic downstream yarn mills have been significantly squeezed, and industrial risks have accumulated. Meanwhile, the price advantage of imported yarn has emerged, which may impact domestic cotton consumption. In the short term, cotton prices may face a correction risk, but the correction range may be limited due to the relatively low inventory pressure of the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [15]. Key Points - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 14675, down 20 from the previous day with a decrease of 0.14%; Cotton 05 closed at 14590, down 85 from the previous day with a decrease of 0.58%, etc. [16] - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: The cotton basis was 1341, up 44 from the previous day; Cotton 01 - 05 was 85, up 65 from the previous day, etc. [16] Group 3: Apple Core View - In the short term, apples have slightly corrected due to lower - than - expected demand. However, the main logic of the current market is the short - term issue of delivery products. It is expected that apples will continue to be strong after short - term adjustment. Additionally, pre - Spring Festival stocking has gradually started, and cold storages are packaging goods. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [20]. Key Points - Apple futures prices: AP03 closed at 9583, down 3.06% from the previous day and 1.6% from the previous week; AP04 closed at 9539, down 2.73% from the previous day and 1.47% from the previous week, etc. [21] - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 9807, down 14959.09% from the previous day and 2195.51% from the previous week; AP05 - 10 was 1402, down 2.71% from the previous day and up 29.81% from the previous week [21][22]. - Apple basis: The main contract basis was - 430, down 12.96% from the previous day and up 27.98% from the previous week [21]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - In the short term, red date prices may remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement. In the long - term, the overall supply - demand of domestic red dates in the new year is relatively loose, and prices will still face downward pressure [29]. Key Points - Red date price spreads: For example, the red date futures spread of 01 - 05 showed certain trends in different periods [30].