金融期货周报-20260116

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the bond market, the negative factors are gradually materializing in January. There may be allocation opportunities during the period of large supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the bond market may enter a policy observation period and remain volatile before March. For the shipping index, the spot price has reached its peak, and with the resumption of shipping by airlines, there may be short - selling opportunities for the April contract during the off - season [56][61][83] Summary by Directory I. Treasury Bonds 1. This Week's Market Review - Treasury Futures Market: All treasury futures contracts showed price increases this week. For example, the TL2603 contract had a weekly closing price of 111.19, a weekly settlement price of 111.26, a weekly increase of 0.32, and a weekly increase rate of 0.29%. In terms of strategy performance, long - term futures outperformed spot bonds in the long - end, while in the 5 - year and 2 - year segments, futures underperformed spot bonds. There are positive arbitrage opportunities in the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts. Currently, the 30 - year basis is relatively high, and short - selling the basis can be considered. Due to the poor liquidity of the 2606 contract, it is not recommended to participate in the inter - period strategy. A flattening strategy for cross - variety can be focused on [7][8][11] - Bond Spot Market: The tightness of funds eased, and short - term yields declined significantly. By Thursday this week, the 10 - year treasury yield was reported at 2.3025%, down 0.75bp from last Friday, and the 10 - year CDB yield was reported at 2.0153%, down 1.23bp. Most US Treasury yields increased. By Thursday this week, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.1700%, down 1bp from last Friday, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 3.5600%, up 2bp from last Friday [35] - Funding: This week, the repurchase operations were staggered and renewed. The total net investment was 111.28 billion yuan, but there was a temporary shortage of funds on the 13th. The funding situation returned to looseness in the second half of the week, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks. The funding interest rates fluctuated. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained stable around 1.63 - 1.64% [38][39] - Interest Rate Derivatives: In terms of interest rate swaps, the yields of swap varieties fluctuated this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [54] 2. Market Analysis - Recent Market Logic: In December, the bond market was weakly volatile. In January, negative factors are gradually materializing. After the implementation of the public fund fee new regulations and facing the large supply in January and the credit impulse demand at the beginning of the year, the bond market may have allocation opportunities during the supply - demand mismatch period in the first quarter. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the possibility of a short - term reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut is low, but the central bank's loose orientation remains unchanged [56] - This Week's Fundamental Situation: In December, the export growth rate continued to exceed expectations, mainly driven by the accelerated growth of exports to ASEAN. The total social financing increased less year - on - year, mainly due to the high - volume issuance of government bonds in the same period last year. However, credit continued to expand, especially the medium - and long - term loans of enterprises increased significantly year - on - year, while the willingness of residents to increase leverage was still weak [57] - Next Week's Bond Market Outlook: After the release of economic data next week, the market will enter a data vacuum period for about 1.5 months. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the market may enter a policy observation period, and the loose expectation may not heat up significantly before March. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend [61] 3. Next Week's Open - Market Maturity and Important Economic Calendar - Open - Market Maturity: A total of 110.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature next week [63] - Important Economic Data and Events: China will release GDP data for 2025 and the LPR quotation [66] II. Shipping Index 1. Market Review - The shipping index rose sharply on Monday due to short - term disturbances but fell significantly in the second half of the week as the sentiment ebbed and returned to the fundamentals. The spot price was adjusted downward, and the shipping capacity in January and February was high. The cease - fire agreement in Gaza also contributed to the decline [67] 2. Container Shipping Market Situation - Spot Market: The spot price was stable in the first half of January, but shipping companies have started to lower the quotes for the second half of January, indicating that the peak of the spot price may have passed [73] - Supply - Demand Fundamentals of Container Shipping: On the supply side, the European container shipping capacity in January was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the potential shipping capacity is expected to continue to grow. Although the actual shipping capacity in January was basically the same as in previous years, the shipping capacity will be relatively high in early February. The easing of the Red Sea situation and the resumption of shipping by airlines may put downward pressure on the index. On the demand side, the European economy is slowly improving, and the demand - side support for container shipping prices is limited [79][80] 3. Market Outlook - The peak of the spot price has passed, and it is likely that the shipping routes will resume normal operation this year. Attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities of the April contract during the off - season [83]