建信期货农产品周度报告-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oils and Fats: The global soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, and China's domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline. The inventory of soybean oil in coastal oil mills is in a seasonal de - stocking channel, but the absolute level is still higher than the historical average. The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has strong support below 8,500 yuan due to production decline and export improvement in Malaysia. The Indonesian B50 policy suspension is a short - term negative, and the policy of confiscating illegal plantations may tighten long - term supply. For rapeseed oil, the market expects the Sino - Canadian trade relationship to ease, and attention should be paid to whether there are official signals of tariff adjustment [8][9]. - Corn: The supply side is affected by factors such as farmers' selling intentions and port inventory. The demand side includes feed and deep - processing demand. Overall, the supply - demand relationship may remain tight, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price of the 2603 contract may also follow the spot price and be strong [77][78]. - Pigs: The supply side shows that the pig出栏 is expected to increase slightly in the short - to - medium term, and the second - fattening pen utilization rate is relatively high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - Soybean Meal: The USDA January report is bearish for US soybeans, with increased ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, putting pressure on the market. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs has been rising due to factors such as decreased laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. However, the de - capacity process is tortuous, and it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. - Cotton: The USDA monthly report is relatively positive for the global cotton market. The domestic cotton market is in a wide - range volatile adjustment stage in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season [200][201]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of various oil contracts showed different degrees of increase. The USDA's soybean production data was higher than expected, and China's continuous purchase of US soybeans provided some support to the market, but the upcoming Brazilian harvest may weaken China's demand for US soybeans [8]. - Operation Suggestions: The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, with a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has support below 8,500 yuan, and attention should be paid to the policy changes in Indonesia and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship for rapeseed oil [8][9]. 3.1.2 Core Points - Domestic Spot Changes: As of January 16, 2025, the prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, and the basis also changed accordingly [10]. - Domestic Three - Major Oil Inventories: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76% [17]. - Domestic Oilseed Supply: The soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills increased, and the soybean crushing volume also increased. The inventory of imported soybeans in ports was relatively high, and the estimated arrival volume in January was about 7.597 million tons. The opening rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost stagnant, and the inventory of imported rapeseed in ports was about 120,000 tons [22][27][28]. - Palm Oil Dynamics: In January, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased, and the export volume increased. Indonesia's B50 policy was postponed, and Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory were expected to change in 2026 [30][31]. - CFTC Positions: Speculative funds continued to reduce net long positions in soybeans for the fifth week, net - bought Chicago soybean oil for the first time in five weeks, and continued to net - sell Chicago soybean meal for the sixth week [41]. Corn 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot Market: The corn prices in the north port, northeast production area, and sales area increased, while the prices in the north China region continued to fluctuate. The increase in prices did not reduce the demand, and the downstream was in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period [44]. - Futures Market: As of January 15, the main 2603 contract of Dalian corn closed at 2,295 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 29 yuan/ton, or 1.26% [44]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - Corn Supply: The grain - selling progress was average, with the northeast being faster than the same period last year and the north China and northwest being slower. The port inventory decreased [46][47][49]. - Domestic Substitutes: The supply of wheat was stable, but the feed substitution demand was weak due to the lack of price advantage [50]. - Imported Substitute Grains: In November, the import of some grains increased, and the import of corn and other grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was relatively high, and the import volume may continue to increase in the future [52][62]. - Feed Demand: In November 2025, the national industrial feed output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The feed enterprises' inventory increased, and the pig inventory was expected to drive the feed demand to be good [63][69]. - Deep - Processing Demand: The corn starch industry's opening rate decreased, and the production profit was in a loss state. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, and there was still a certain demand for inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival [71][72]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn planting area, yield, and total output increased, and the consumption also increased. The market supply and demand were relatively tight, and the price had strong support [75][76]. 3.2.3 Later Outlook and Strategy - Viewpoint: The supply side may see a slight acceleration in the grain - selling rhythm before the Spring Festival, and the port inventory is still low. The substitute grains' import advantage is increasing. The demand side has a demand for inventory replenishment, but the profit of the breeding and deep - processing industries is not good. The overall supply - demand relationship is tight, and the spot and futures prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. - Strategy: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions [79]. Pigs 3.3.1 Market Review - Spot Market: The pig price continued to rise this week, with the supply side showing pressure - barring and weight - gaining, and the demand side having limited increase in slaughter volume due to high purchase costs [81]. - Futures Market: As of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 of pig futures fluctuated and rose, with a closing price of 11,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton, or 2% [82]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Overview - Long - Term Supply: The price of binary sows increased slightly, and the replenishment enthusiasm was average. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change according to the sow inventory data [89][90][93]. - Medium - Term Supply: The price of piglets increased, and the inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change in the medium term [102][103]. - Short - Term Supply: The large - pig inventory decreased, and the proportion of large - pig inventory increased due to pressure - barring and second - fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens increased [105][106]. - Current Supply: The actual pig出栏 in December was close to the plan, and the planned出栏 in January decreased. The average slaughter weight increased slightly [113][114]. - Import Supply: In November, the pork import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to November also decreased [120]. - Second - Fattening Demand: The second - fattening showed sporadic entry, and the cost increased with the rising pig price [122]. - Slaughter Demand: The slaughter enterprise's opening rate decreased, and the slaughter volume increased year - on - year in November. The opening rate is expected to remain weakly volatile [126]. 3.3.3 Later Outlook - Viewpoint: The supply side is expected to have a slight increase in pig出栏, and the second - fattening pressure is still high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - Strategy: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should reduce hedging short positions with the出栏 [130]. Soybean Meal 3.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: As of January 16, the coastal soybean meal price was slightly weaker than a week ago [133]. - Futures Market: The US soybean main contract was weak this week. The USDA January report was bearish, and the Brazilian soybean harvest was expected to be abundant. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. 3.4.2 Core Points - Soybean Planting: The USDA January report showed that the US soybean planting area decreased, the yield remained high, and the ending inventory increased. The Brazilian soybean planting was basically completed, and the Argentine soybean planting rate was 93.9%. The weather in Brazil was relatively normal, while the rainfall in Argentina was insufficient [136][137][138]. - US Soybean Exports: As of the week of January 8, the US soybean export volume increased, and the net sales also increased. The US - China trade agreement may affect future soybean purchases [146]. - Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing: The pressing profit of imported soybeans varied. The soybean pressing volume and opening rate decreased, and the soybean import volume and inventory changed. The future import soybean arrival will enter a relatively off - season [153][154][156]. - Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory: The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the transaction volume increased this week due to the potential risk of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter [160][163]. - Basis and Inter - Month Spread: The basis of the 05 contract of soybean meal increased, and the 3 - 5 spread continued to widen [164]. - Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [170]. Eggs 3.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The egg spot price has been rising since late December, mainly due to the decrease in laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. The price increase is expected to be higher than expected, but the de - capacity process is tortuous [173]. - Operation Suggestions: If the spot price maintains the current trend, the futures price may rebound, but it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. 3.5.2 Data Summary - Inventory and Replenishment: The laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period of history but is gradually decreasing. The replenishment momentum is weak, and the future laying hen inventory is likely to further decrease [174][176]. - Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit: The egg price increased, the feed cost was at a medium level, the egg - chick price was at a medium - low level, and the breeding profit was at a low level but improved [179]. - Culled Hens: The culling volume decreased, the culling age was delayed slightly, and the culled hen price increased but was still at a low level compared with the same period last year [184]. - Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price: The egg sales volume was at a low level in the same period of history, the inventory was relatively high, and the pig price was at a low level in the same period of history [190]. Cotton 3.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The external market showed a slight recovery, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated widely. The macro - economic situation and domestic policies had an impact on the market. The domestic spot market had different trading situations, and the overseas market's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [198][199][200]. - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton enters a wide - range volatile adjustment stage, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive [200][201]. 3.6.2 Core Points - Cotton - Producing Countries' Situation: The USDA January supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with a decrease in beginning inventory, production, and ending inventory, and an increase in trade volume and consumption [202]. - US Cotton Exports: As of the week of January 8, the US cotton net signing and shipment volume changed, and the signing progress was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [208]. - Textile Enterprises' Operation: The cotton inventory, yarn inventory, and fabric inventory of textile enterprises increased, and the yarn and fabric load indexes changed slightly [211]. - Basis and Inter - Month Spread: The spot basis of cotton increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [223]. - CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: The non - commercial net position of cotton increased, and the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [225].