饲料养殖周度报告-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the biodiesel policy boosts US soybeans, but the domestic supply is strong, so soybean meal will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The relationship between China and Canada may see substantial improvement, and rapeseed meal will continue its weak pattern during the off - season of demand [27]. - In the medium and long term, with the global supply in a loose fundamental situation, the overall upside space is limited [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - From January 8th to January 15th, the closing price of the futures main contract of soybean meal M2605 decreased from 2782 to 2740, a weekly decline of 1.51%. The average price of 43% protein soybean meal decreased from 3110 to 3100, a decline of 0.32% [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract of rapeseed meal RM605 decreased from 2358 to 2283, a weekly decline of 3.18%. The average price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2540 to 2460, a decline of 3.15% [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract of corn C2603 increased from 2266 to 2295, a weekly increase of 1.28%. The price of second - class national standard corn increased from 2310 to 2330, an increase of 0.87% [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract of live pigs LH2603 increased from 11720 to 11950, a weekly increase of 1.96%. The average price of commercial pigs in Henan increased from 12.85 to 12.97, an increase of 0.93% [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract of eggs JD2603 increased from 3009 to 3066, a weekly increase of 1.89%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas increased from 3.23 to 3.5, an increase of 8.36% [2]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - end - The weather in southern Argentina is still dry, which may affect soybean and corn crops. The export sales of US soybeans far exceeded expectations, with a month - on - month surge of 135%. From January 8th to January 15th, the planting rate of soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 95%, higher than last week's 92% but lower than 98% in the same period in 2025 [5]. - Brazil's expected soybean planting area in 2025 is 47.724673 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.7% from the previous year. The expected soybean output in 2025 is 166.054076 million tons, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 14.6% from the previous year. The expected soybean output in 2026 is 170.269202 million tons, a 2.5% increase from 2025 [5]. Supply - end - In 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 111.83 million tons, a 6.5% increase from 2024. In December 2025, China's soybean imports were 8.04 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month but a 1.3% increase year - on - year. China did not import soybeans from the US for the third consecutive month in December [5]. - As of January 16th, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 446.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars per ton from last week. The CNF price of imported US West soybeans was 463.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars per ton from last week [9]. Demand - end - The National Grain and Oil Information Center estimates that the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China in January 2026 may continue to decline, and the operating rate of oil mills will slightly decrease. The estimated soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills for the whole month is about 8 million tons, an increase of about 700,000 tons year - on - year and about 900,000 tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years [5]. - As of January 15th, the domestic soybean meal spot market price was 3160 yuan/ton. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major national oil mills was 63.21 million tons, including 13.35 million tons of spot transactions and 49.86 million tons of far - month basis transactions [5]. Inventory - end - In the second week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major national oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, a 0.40% increase from last week and a 17.96% increase from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a 10.78% decrease from last week and a 72.68% increase from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 5.4086 million tons, a 6.72% decrease from last week and an 18.54% increase from the same period last year [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The biodiesel policy boosts US soybeans, but the domestic supply is strong, so soybean meal will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The relationship between China and Canada may see substantial improvement, and rapeseed meal will continue its weak pattern during the off - season of demand [27]. - Medium - and long - term: With the global supply in a loose fundamental situation, the overall upside space is limited [28]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Concerns include产区 weather, trade relations, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [29].