建信期货黑色金属周报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of RB2605, HC2605, J2605, and JM2605 are expected to first decline and then rise. Investors can wait for price corrections and then establish long positions for hedging or investment. - I2605 is expected to maintain resilience before the Spring Festival, but the upside space is limited due to high port inventories. - The basis of rebar is expected to narrow with fluctuations, ranging approximately from 90 to 170 yuan/ton. The basis of hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate within a range, approximately from - 40 to 30 yuan/ton. [6][33][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendation | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy | RB2605 | 3163 | First decline, then rise | Policy adjustment, market sentiment, fundamentals of the steel industry, and cost support | | Single - side Strategy | HC2605 | 3315 | First decline, then rise | Policy adjustment, market sentiment, fundamentals of the steel industry, and cost support | | Single - side Strategy | J2605 | 1717 | First decline, then rise | Indonesian coal policy, inventory status, and market sentiment | | Single - side Strategy | JM2605 | 1171 | First decline, then rise | Indonesian coal policy, inventory status, and market sentiment | | Spread Strategy | I2605 | 812 | Maintain resilience | Supply - demand relationship, steel mill profitability, and inventory structure | | Spread Strategy | RB05 - 07 | - 43 | - | - | | Spread Strategy | J05 - 09 | - 79.5 | - | - | | Spread Strategy | JM05 - 09 | - 82 | - | - | | Spread Strategy | I05 - 09 | 18.5 | - | - | | Spread Strategy | RB/I | 3.8953 | - | - | | Spread Strategy | HC - RB | 152 | - | - | | Spread Strategy | J/JM | 1.4663 | - | - | [6] 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of January 16, the prices of major rebar spot markets mostly declined, while the prices of major hot - rolled coil spot markets generally rose. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets decreased by 30 - 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [14]. - Blast Furnace Operation and Crude Steel Output: In the week of January 16, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 85.48% after three consecutive weeks of increase. The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in early January rebounded significantly from the lowest level since February 2017, increasing by 35.43 tons or 21.57% to 199.70 tons compared with late December 2025 [16]. - Hot Metal Output and EAF Production: In the week of January 16, the national average daily hot metal output decreased by 1.49 tons or 0.65% to 228.01 tons after three consecutive weeks of increase. The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 1.08 percentage points to 57.99%, reaching a new high since mid - June last year [18]. - Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products: In the week of January 16, the weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills decreased by 0.74 tons or 0.39% to 190.30 tons after four consecutive weeks of increase. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil from major domestic steel mills increased by 2.85 tons or 0.93% to 308.36 tons, reaching a new high since December 2022. The inventory of rebar from major domestic steel mills decreased by 5.27 tons or 3.56% to 142.66 tons, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.79 tons or 1.02% to 76.53 tons, reaching a new high since late June last year [18]. - Social Inventory: On January 16, the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities increased for two consecutive weeks from the lowest level since early January last year, increasing by 5.23 tons or 1.80% to 295.41 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities decreased and reached a new low since early September last year, decreasing by 5.01 tons or 1.72% to 285.80 tons [23]. - Downstream Demand: From January to November last year, the national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared with January - October last year. The national automobile production increased by 10.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared with January - October last year. The national metal - cutting machine tool production increased by 12.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate narrowing by 2.1 percentage points compared with January - October last year. The production of air conditioners, household refrigerators, and household washing machines increased by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 6.3% year - on - year respectively, with the growth rates decreasing by 1.4, increasing by 0.3, and decreasing by 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with January - October last year [23]. - Apparent Consumption and Futures Margin: In the week of January 16, the apparent consumption of rebar significantly rebounded from the lowest level since mid - October last year and the second - lowest level since late February last year, increasing by 15.38 tons or 8.79% to 190.34 tons. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil rebounded, increasing by 5.82 tons or 1.89% to 314.16 tons. The margin of the rebar 2605 contract showed a significant narrowing of the loss, increasing by 38.5 yuan/ton to - 294.7 yuan/ton [27]. - Gross Profit per Ton of Rebar: In the week of January 16, the gross profit per ton of rebar for long - process steel mills calculated based on the main spot prices showed a narrowing of the loss, increasing by 18.0 yuan/ton to - 48.6 yuan/ton. The gross profit per ton of rebar for short - process steel mills (at normal electricity prices) decreased for two consecutive weeks, decreasing by 12.2 yuan/ton to 61.2 yuan/ton [31]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices are expected to first decline and then rise. Investors can wait for price corrections and then establish long positions for hedging or investment. - Basis: The basis of rebar is expected to narrow with fluctuations, ranging approximately from 90 to 170 yuan/ton. The basis of hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate within a range, approximately from - 40 to 30 yuan/ton [33][37]. 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of January 16, the prices of major coke spot markets were basically stable, while the prices of major coking coal markets changed from being stable with a slight decline for three consecutive weeks to mainly rising. The price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in major markets remained unchanged week - on - week, and the aggregated price of some main coking coal markets increased by 30 - 120 yuan/ton week - on - week [40]. - Weekly Output and Capacity Utilization of Coke: In the week of January 16, the average daily coke output of 230 independent coking plants decreased by 0.10 tons or 0.20% to 50.01 tons after two consecutive weeks of increase. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 71.47% after three consecutive weeks of increase. The average daily coke output of 247 steel enterprises decreased from the highest level since early August last year, decreasing by 0.16 tons or 0.34% to 46.72 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 85.38% after two consecutive weeks of slight increase [42]. - Inventory and Profit of Coking Plants: On January 16, the coke inventory at ports increased for four consecutive weeks from the lowest level since mid - January last year, increasing by 3.97 tons or 2.16% to 188.07 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased for four consecutive weeks and reached a new high since mid - October last year, increasing by 4.60 tons or 0.71% to 650.33 tons. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants decreased for four consecutive weeks from the highest level since late July last year, decreasing by 3.56 tons or 8.06% to 40.61 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises showed a continuous loss for four weeks, and the loss widened for two consecutive weeks, decreasing by 20 yuan to - 65 yuan [44]. - Weekly Output, Operating Rate, and Inventory of Sample Mines: In the week of January 16, the average daily clean coal output of 523 sample mines increased significantly for two consecutive weeks and reached a new high since late October last year, increasing by 3.42 tons or 4.66% to 76.85 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mines increased significantly for two consecutive weeks and reached a new high since late May last year, increasing by 3.13 percentage points to 88.47%. On January 16, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines significantly decreased from the highest level since early July last year, decreasing by 22.64 tons or 7.67% to 272.37 tons. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines changed from a slight increase to a significant increase, increasing by 76.53 tons or 16.17% to 549.90 tons [44]. - Monthly Import and Weekly Inventory of Coking Coal: From January to November last year, China imported 104.86 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 5.67% in absolute terms, with the decline expanding by 0.87 percentage points compared with January - October last year. On January 16, the coking coal inventory at ports decreased slightly for two consecutive weeks, decreasing by 0.90 tons or 0.30% to 298.90 tons. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants increased for four consecutive weeks and reached a new high since the end of January last year, increasing by 42.87 tons or 4.70% to 954.83 tons. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased for two consecutive weeks and then increased slightly, increasing by 4.47 tons or 0.56% to 802.20 tons [49]. - Monthly Output of Raw Coal and Coke: From January to November last year, China's raw coal output was 4.402 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.84% in absolute terms, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.24 percentage points compared with January - October last year. China's coke output was 461 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.19% in absolute terms, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.10 percentage points compared with January - October last year [49]. 3.3.2 Conclusions and Recommendations The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to first decline and then rise. Investors can wait for price corrections and then establish long positions for hedging or investment [53][54].