铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20260118

Group 1: Report's Core View - The copper market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with copper prices oscillating at a high level. Tightness at the mine end and strong overseas fundamentals provide support, but domestic inventory build - up and policy risks limit the upside potential [2][3] - Bullish factors include supply - side issues such as strikes in Chile, mining accidents in Indonesia, and low annual copper processing fees, which put pressure on global smelting capacity and support copper prices; the cooling of US inflation strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, and long - term demand from new energy and AI infrastructure boosts copper consumption [2] - Bearish factors are that the continuous build - up of copper social inventory and the expansion of spot discounts reflect low acceptance of high prices by downstream users; the US plan to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran raises concerns about disruptions to copper trade flows and a decline in demand [2] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data - Weekly Futures Price Changes: The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 100,770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.63%; SHFE Copper Index - weighted is at 100,799 yuan/ton, down 0.64% weekly. International Copper is at 91,520 yuan/ton, with a 1.52% weekly increase. LME Copper 3 - month is at 13,148.5 dollars/ton, up 3.52% weekly. COMEX Copper is at 599.15 dollars/pound, with a 3.19% weekly increase [4] - Weekly Changes in Futures Positions and Trading Volume: The position of SHFE Copper Main Contract increased by 37,259 to 225,933, and the trading volume was 322,422. The position of SHFE Copper Index - weighted decreased by 7,461 to 683,376, and the trading volume was 643,234. The position of International Copper decreased by 267 to 7,136, and the trading volume was 12,196. The position of LME Copper 3 - month decreased by 38,282 to 239,014, and the trading volume was 65,624. The position of COMEX Copper decreased by 2,004 to 141,386, and the trading volume was 58,290 [4] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data - Weekly Spot Price Changes: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 102,575 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan (0.48%) weekly. Shanghai Wumaom is at 102,170 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan (- 0.35%) weekly. Guangdong Southern Reserve is at 102,640 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.08%) weekly. Yangtze Non - ferrous is at 102,940 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.31%) weekly [8][10] - Weekly Changes in Spot Premiums and Discounts: Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 125 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 80 yuan (177.78%). Shanghai Wumaom premium/discount is - 120 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 70 yuan (140%). Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 160 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 180 yuan (- 900%). Yangtze Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 75 yuan (- 1500%). LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium is 37.6 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars (124.48%) weekly. LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 83.5 dollars/ton, down 17.96 dollars (- 17.7%) weekly [10] Group 4: Copper Advanced Data - The copper import profit is - 1,465.85 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 677.34 yuan (85.9%) - The copper concentrate TC is - 46 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.24 dollars (2.77%) - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.1989, with a weekly decline of 0.0567 (- 1.33%) - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,258.63 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,575.77 yuan (- 32.59%) [11] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data - Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Changes: SHFE Copper warehouse receipts total 160,417 tons, up 49,201 tons (44.24%) weekly. International Copper warehouse receipts total 11,286 tons, up 10,233 tons (971.79%) weekly. SHFE Copper inventory is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons (24.22%) weekly. LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 91,025 tons, down 24,125 tons (- 20.95%) weekly. LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 50,100 tons, up 24,175 tons (93.25%) weekly [15] - Other Inventory Changes: LME Copper inventory is 141,125 tons, up 50 tons (0.04%) weekly. COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 331,096 tons, up 9,989 tons (3.11%) weekly. COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 207,621 tons, up 13,771 tons (7.1%) weekly. COMEX Copper inventory is 538,717 tons, up 23,760 tons (4.61%) weekly. Copper mine port inventory is 428,000 tons, down 68,000 tons (- 13.71%) weekly. Social inventory is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons (1.04%) weekly [17] Group 6: Copper Midstream Production - In November 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8% - In November 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative production from January to November was 22.593 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [19] Group 7: Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 51.1%, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 20.59%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.48%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.96 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 56.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 61.59%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.9 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.99 percentage points [21][22] Group 8: Copper Element Imports - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrates was 2.704298 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import from January to December was 30.319797 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% - In November 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 58,333 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The cumulative import from January to November was 688,621 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% - In November 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 269,205 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The cumulative import from January to November was 3,085,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8% - In November 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 208,143 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20%. The cumulative import from January to November was 2,103,603 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 437,408.903 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The cumulative import from January to December was 5,320,669.5 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [24]