油料周报-20260118

Report on the Oilseed Industry Core Viewpoints - Soybean Meal: The supply of soybean meal remains ample due to sufficient imports, high oil - mill operation rates, and stable production. In the demand side, the high inventory of downstream feed enterprises and losses in pig farming have weakened purchasing power. Seasonal factors also play a role as demand enters a slow season. Overseas, the expected high - yield of South American soybeans has put downward pressure on US soybean prices, leading to lower import costs in China. Overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [2] - Rapeseed Meal: The supply is tight as domestic rapeseed stocks have hit historical lows, and press volumes have stagnated. The delay in Australian rapeseed arrivals has exacerbated the situation. On the demand side, the winter season has reduced aquaculture demand, and the expanded price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal has diminished the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal. However, the potential improvement in China - Canada relations may increase future imports [7] Supply - Demand Analysis Soybean Meal - Supply: Abundant imports, high oil - mill operation rates, and stable production result in high inventory levels [2] - Demand: High inventory of feed enterprises, losses in pig - farming, and seasonal factors lead to weak demand [2] - Overseas: Expected high - yield in South America, USDA's inventory increase and export decrease forecasts for US soybeans affect the market [2] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: Low domestic rapeseed stocks, stagnant press volumes, and delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals cause supply shortages. Future imports may increase due to potential policy changes [7] - Demand: Reduced aquaculture demand in winter and limited substitution demand due to price differences [7] Report on the Edible Oil Industry Core Viewpoints - Soybean Oil: High weekly production from imported soybean crushing, declining inventory, and the start of Spring Festival stocking support the spot market. Recovering catering consumption and increased small - package oil purchases are positive factors, but the weaker - than - expected terminal stocking has limited the upside. Overseas bio - diesel news has provided external support [37] - Palm Oil: High inventory in Malaysia and domestic ports creates supply pressure. Although domestic demand for edible and industrial use has increased, high inventory restricts price movements. Policy uncertainties from Indonesia and the US add to the complexity [37] - Rapeseed Oil: A significant drop in domestic rapeseed crushing and production, but expected Australian arrivals will ease supply concerns. Pre - Spring Festival stocking has supported short - term demand, but high prices have dampened purchasing enthusiasm [37] Supply - Demand Analysis Soybean Oil - Supply: High weekly production from imported soybeans and decreasing inventory [37] - Demand: Recovering catering consumption and increased small - package oil purchases, but weak terminal stocking [37] - External: Overseas bio - diesel news provides support [37] Palm Oil - Supply: High inventory in Malaysia and domestic ports [37] - Demand: Increased edible and industrial demand, but high inventory restricts prices [37] - Policy: Uncertainties from Indonesia's and the US's bio - diesel policies [37] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: Decreased domestic production, but expected Australian imports will ease supply [37] - Demand: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices limit purchases [37] - Policy: Potential increase in imports due to improved China - Canada relations and uncertain overseas bio - diesel policies [37]