“十五五”时期工业领域重点投资方向研究报告

Investment Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period emphasizes investment in traditional industries focusing on high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated development, with a strong push for technological innovation and transformation[7] - Manufacturing investment growth rates from 2021 to 2024 are projected at 13.5%, 9.1%, 6.5%, and 9.2% respectively, indicating a robust investment environment despite external pressures[17] - In 2025, manufacturing investment growth slowed to 1.9%, a decline of 7.3 percentage points from 2024, highlighting a potential downturn in investment momentum[26] Structural Challenges - Investment efficiency has declined, with the incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) rising to approximately 14.9 from 13.1, indicating increased investment required for each unit of output[32] - The capacity utilization rate for major industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point decrease year-on-year, suggesting underutilization of resources[30] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing has significantly slowed, with growth rates dropping below overall manufacturing investment in 2024, indicating structural weaknesses in emerging sectors[32] Strategic Recommendations - Establish a dynamic identification system for investment directions aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to enhance investment effectiveness and adaptability[9] - Focus on four key investment areas: upgrading traditional industries, fostering emerging industries, planning for future industries, and optimizing supply in weak links[44] - Emphasize the importance of human capital alongside material capital in investment strategies to enhance overall economic returns[41]