锌产业周报-20260118

Report Core View Bullish Factors - The losses of smelters have widened, and the supply pressure has significantly decreased month-on-month, which is bullish [3]. - Although the import window is closed, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been repaired, which is bullish [3]. Bearish Factors - The import volume of zinc ore has declined, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, which may lead to production cuts, which is bearish [3]. - The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, indicating a loose global supply, which is bearish [3]. Trading Advice - It is advisable to wait and see. The ratio of futures to spot has rebounded, and the export window may close again, so caution is needed [3]. Grouped Summaries Processing and End - demand - Included data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly output, net exports of galvanized sheets, net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets and zinc oxide, real estate development investment, sales and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][7][10] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Included data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrate, zinc concentrate TC, monthly zinc ingot production, production profit and processing fee of refined zinc enterprises, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in exchanges [18][20][21] Futures and Spot Market Review - Included data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc price and the US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and the basis of zinc ingots [27][28][29]