策略周报：理性降温，景气度仍是避风港-20260118

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a rational cooling in the market, suggesting that the economic climate remains a safe haven for investors [1][3] - The bond market sentiment has improved due to recent central bank operations that injected liquidity, leading to a quick recovery in the 10-year government bond yield, which is expected to fluctuate around 1.85% [2][12] - The report highlights the importance of high coupon bond allocations, especially if government bond supply pressures ease in late January, presenting a potential mid-term buying opportunity [12][13] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing a shift back to rationality, with regulatory measures aimed at preventing overheating risks, leading to adjustments in major indices like the CSI 300 [3][10] - The report suggests that after the market returns to rationality, it will benefit a slow bull market and attract funds back to high-growth sectors such as AI hardware, robotics, semiconductors, new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [3][13] - Short-term market indices may still be in a cooling phase, and it is recommended to wait for reduced selling pressure before making new investments [12][13] Group 3 - The report notes that the overseas markets are likely to continue a strong but volatile trend, although geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased uncertainty [13] - Recent adjustments in financing margin ratios by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aim to lower leverage levels and protect investor rights, which may contribute to long-term market stability [9][10] - The report indicates that the A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with daily average turnover rising to 34,651 billion, marking a historical high [20]