LPG早报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central price. The 02-03 and 3-4 spreads are in reverse arbitrage, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation. The internal and external valuations are relatively high, and the external market supply - demand pattern is expected to weaken. The domestic valuation is neutral [1]. - The PDH profit has been significantly repaired but is still poor. The port inventory decreased by 4.9%, the arrival of ships increased by 2.7%, and the overall shipment increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and the external release decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate is 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there is an expectation of a continued decline in February [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Daily Data - From January 12 - 16, 2026, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as the prices of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil changed. The paper import profit and the main basis also changed. For example, the South China LPG price increased from 4890 to 5035, and the daily change on January 16 was - 10 [1]. - On Friday, the futures market opened lower and then fluctuated. The 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+5), the 03 - 4 spread was - 250 (+12), and the 02 - 4 spread was - 180 (+17). On Monday at 8:30 am, the FEI and CP paper prices reached 522.5 and 526.5 US dollars respectively [1]. Weekly Data - The domestic market was affected by geopolitical factors this week. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 3 spread was 70 (+15), and the 3 - 4 spread was - 250 (-58). The prices of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4340 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 5977 (-241) [1]. - The FEI and CP spreads increased, the MB spread decreased, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared with CP and MB. The internal and external PG - FEI was 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP was 69.6 (-8). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China was 77 (-2); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. The freight increased, and the US Gulf - Japan was 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 27 (weekly +12) [1]. - The PDH profit was significantly repaired but still poor. The port inventory decreased by 4.9%, the arrival of ships increased by 2.7%, and the overall shipment increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and the external release decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there are expectations of multiple device shutdowns in February, with a continued decline in the PDH operating rate expected [1].