集运早报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2602 contract follows the delivery logic with a small deviation. For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. Spot price drops suppress the futures market, but the potential increase in post - Chinese - New - Year rush shipping may weaken the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and subsequent corrective market conditions are worth noting [3]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to focus on shorting the EC2610 contract at high levels. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is neutral with limited downward space [3]. - After the exchange changes the contract rules on February 10, the EC2602 contract will be removed, and new contracts such as EC2605, EC2507, and EC2509 will be added. Seasonally, EC2607 is a peak season contract, while EC2605 and EC2609 are often off - season contracts. Considering geopolitical impacts, a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended, and combinations like EC2608 - EC2609 and EC2609 - EC2610 are relatively safe [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Price and Volume Information - The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts are 1710.5, 1121.0, 1311.2, 1465.6, and 1055.1 respectively, with changes of - 0.49%, - 6.79%, - 7.713%, - 3.89%, and - 5.03% [2]. - The trading volumes of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts are 2433, 49713, 4137, 448, and 2150 respectively, and the open interests are 7578, 42632, 3780, 1385, and 7938 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 1300, 1800, 7.32, 64, and 357 respectively [2]. - The month - spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 are 589.5 and - 190.2 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 73.2 and 28.9, and week - on - week changes of 122.3 and 14.1 [2]. Spot Market Information - The SCFIS (European route) index on January 12, 2026, is 1956.39 points, with a month - on - month increase of 8.94% and a previous - period increase of 3.05% [2]. - The SCFI (European route) on January 16, 2026, is 1676 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 2.50% compared to the previous period [2]. - In Week 4, the central price of European - route spot shipping is 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures market. In Week 5, it drops to 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points [4]. Relevant News - On January 19, the US invites 60 countries to join the Gaza Peace Committee, and Trump plans to charge over one billion dollars in membership fees for permanent seats on the committee [5]. - The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros or restricting US companies from entering the EU market in response to Trump's decision to impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and increasing it to 25% from June 1 [5].