芳烃橡胶早报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA device maintenance has led to a decline in the start - up rate, the polyester load has declined faster, inventory has increased, and the basis has weakened. In the future, with high PX profits and increased overseas start - up, the de - stocking amplitude for the far - month is revised down. TA's short - term upward space is limited, but before the new device is put into production, the overall pattern remains unchanged. After the valuation correction, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. - For MEG, the domestic oil - based operation is stable, and the coal - based load increase drives the overall load to rise slightly. The port inventory has accumulated significantly, and the basis has strengthened. The overall pattern is expected to remain weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the device operation is stable, production and sales have improved, inventory has slightly increased, and the spot processing fee has weakened. The downstream demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, and the start - up rate remains high. The overall contradiction is limited, and pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the prices have shown certain fluctuations. There is no clear overall trend analysis in the report, but attention should be paid to price changes and related spreads [1]. - For styrene and its related products, the prices of raw materials and products have changed, and the production profits of different products have also fluctuated. The start - up rates of related products such as EPS, ABS, and PS have also shown different trends [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device are under maintenance [1]. - Market Situation: The start - up rate has decreased, polyester load has declined faster, inventory has increased, basis has weakened, and spot processing fee has remained stable. PX domestic maintenance has led to a load reduction, overseas load has continued to increase, PXN has shrunk, disproportionation efficiency has weakened, and isomerization efficiency has remained high. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread is weak [1]. - Outlook: In the future, PX high - profit leads to high domestic production and increased overseas start - up, corresponding to the downward revision of the far - month de - stocking amplitude. TA's short - term upward space is limited, but before the new device is put into production, the overall pattern remains unchanged. After the valuation correction, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. MEG - Device Changes: Inner Mongolia Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device has increased its load [1]. - Market Situation: The domestic oil - based operation is stable, the coal - based load increase drives the overall load to rise slightly. The port inventory has accumulated significantly at the beginning of the week, and the forecast of arrivals during the week remains high. The basis has strengthened, and the coal - based efficiency has remained stable [1]. - Outlook: Recently, the reduction in MEG mainly comes from the MTO part. The overall inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and the pattern is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device Operation: The near - end device operation is stable, and the start - up rate remains at 97.6% [1]. - Market Situation: Production and sales have improved, inventory has slightly increased, and the spot processing fee has weakened. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end has decreased, raw material inventory has accumulated, and finished product inventory has decreased. The efficiency has improved [1]. - Outlook: The downstream demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, the start - up rate remains high with limited inventory pressure. The overall contradiction is limited, and pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Price Changes: The prices of various types of rubber, such as US - dollar Thai mixed rubber, US - dollar Thai standard rubber, etc., have shown daily and weekly fluctuations [1]. - Related Spreads: The spreads such as mixed - RU main, US - dollar Thai standard - NR, etc., have also changed [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Price Changes: The prices of raw materials such as ethylene, pure benzene, and products such as styrene, EPS, ABS, and PS have changed daily [1]. - Profit Changes: The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS have fluctuated, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha has also changed [1]. - Start - up Rate Changes: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS have shown different trends over time [1].