摩根士丹利-跨资产对话-美联储未来路径-晚于早-时间表

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upward adjustment of the U.S. economic growth forecast to 2.4% for 2026, primarily driven by improved trade contributions, AI-related business spending, and potential fiscal stimulus measures [1][2]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to be delayed until the second half of 2026 due to strong economic growth in 2026, enhanced momentum by the end of 2025, and a stable labor market reducing the likelihood of cuts based on employment factors [1][3]. - If the labor market remains robust and inflation does not effectively slow down, the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates throughout 2026 or even cancel any planned cuts [5]. - The tariff transmission effect is anticipated to be completed by the end of Q1, which will alleviate the growth rate of commodity prices and overall inflation pressure, thereby enhancing purchasing power for middle- and low-income households [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecast - The upward revision of the U.S. economic growth forecast is attributed to significantly improved economic activity data, particularly strong consumer spending in the services sector, increased trade contributions, and support from AI-related business expenditures and upcoming fiscal stimulus measures [2]. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is influenced by stronger economic growth projections for 2026 and improved labor market conditions, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.5% in November to 4.4% in December [3][5]. - There is a 10% probability that the Federal Reserve's policy response function may change, which could lead to more significant policy adjustments, including additional rate cuts, depending on a Supreme Court ruling regarding presidential authority over board members [7]. Inflation and Consumer Impact - Evidence suggests significant upward risks to inflation, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts later in the year [4]. - The tariff transmission effect is expected to slow commodity price growth and alleviate inflation pressure, improving purchasing power for middle- and low-income households, although overheating consumption could hinder inflation reduction [6].