永安期货有色早报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week. In the medium - term, the report maintains a bullish view on copper prices as the fundamentals are characterized by limited supply and increasing demand. Although the inventory may accumulate faster than expected before the Spring Festival, the destocking speed may also be rapid after the holiday [1]. - For aluminum, the basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are still at low levels. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the aluminum price [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and it is difficult for the price to fall sharply. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets and positive arbitrage opportunities in monthly spreads [3]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and there is a continued game between short - term policies and fundamentals [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain relatively weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [4]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 next week, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [6]. - For tin, the short - term price is mainly affected by capital sentiment and may experience a phased reduction in volatility. It is recommended to wait and see or focus on positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [12]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply and demand are close to balance, and the subsequent market may see a resonance between futures and spot prices [14]. 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 280, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 152, the SHFE inventory increased by 32,972, and the LME inventory increased by 2,450 [1]. - Market Analysis: The copper price pulled back due to US tariff disturbances, a negative CL spread, and high US inventories. In the medium - term, the supply is limited, and the demand has increments [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 170, and the domestic social inventory increased by 42,051 [1]. - Market Analysis: The basis and downstream processing fees are low, and the consumption is weak. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 610, and the SHFE inventory increased by 2,459 [3]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The overseas LME inventory has increased, and the premium has turned into a discount [3]. - Strategy: Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets and positive arbitrage opportunities in monthly spreads [3]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 2,450, and the LME inventory increased by 450 [4]. - Market Analysis: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policies and fundamentals [4]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased slightly [4]. - Market Analysis: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is mainly driven by the nickel price in the short term [4]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the lead price fluctuated with the macro environment, and the SHFE inventory increased by 6,933 [6]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is accumulating, and the refined - scrap spread has narrowed [6]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 next week, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [6]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the tin price fluctuated greatly, and the LME inventory increased by 10 [9]. - Supply and Demand: The supply in major producing countries is disturbed, and the downstream restocking willingness varies when the price drops. The price is mainly affected by capital sentiment [9]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see or focus on positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets [9]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 125, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 144 [12]. - Supply and Demand: The supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost [12]. - Outlook: In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1,000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 253 [14]. - Supply and Demand: The short - term supply and demand are close to balance, and the inventory accumulation in January is expected to be about 1,400 tons per month [14]. - Outlook: The subsequent market may see a resonance between futures and spot prices [14].