原油成品油早报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Iran has restored internet and text messaging services. Trump's stance has become more rational, but the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. Fundamentally, global onshore oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, and the total waterborne inventory is decreasing month - on - month but higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose. The WTI and Brent markets are decoupled. European refinery profits are facing downward pressure due to rising crude oil prices. The absolute price center in the first quarter is expected to remain high. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Syrian government forces have occupied the Conoco gas field, the largest Omar oil field in the east, and two oil fields in the north. - In Iran, the armed forces' chief of staff said that hostile forces were distorting facts through the media. The supreme leader, Khamenei, said the US incited the domestic unrest in Iran, and Trump was guilty. Iran has restored text messaging and will gradually restore internet connectivity. - The US military is increasing its defensive and offensive capabilities in the Middle East in case Trump orders an attack on Iran. - The head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency visited the US to discuss the Iran situation. Trump and Netanyahu had two phone calls in two days to discuss the Iran situation, and Putin offered to mediate between Israel and Iran. [3][4][5] Inventory - In the week ending January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, an increase of 0.81%. - The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.14%. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.05%. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day from the previous week. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending January 9 was 8.977 million barrels, with an expected value of 3.565 million barrels and a previous value of 7.702 million barrels. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending January 9 was - 29,000 barrels, with an expected value of 512,000 barrels and a previous value of 5.594 million barrels. [12]