银河期货：多晶硅：区间震荡，关注现货实际成交价格，工业硅：区间上沿逢高沽空

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for polysilicon is to "observe range-bound fluctuations and focus on actual spot transaction prices." - The investment rating for industrial silicon is to "sell short at the upper end of the range" [1]. Core Views of the Report - For polysilicon, Tongwei Co., Ltd. will halt all production next week, and GCL Technology will significantly reduce production this month. It is expected that polysilicon output in January will drop below 90,000 tons. From April, export tax rebates for photovoltaic products other than photovoltaic cells will be removed, which may lead to a rush to export silicon wafers, cells, and modules from January to March. Polysilicon inventory is expected to decrease in January. The spot market is cautious, and large - scale spot transactions have yet to occur. After the 20th, there may be bulk transactions, and the spot transaction price will be the core guide for the market. The actual transaction price of polysilicon dense material this month is expected to be in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price reference range is (45,000, 55,000). Trading volume is low in the short term, with high volatility, so participation should be cautious [4]. - For industrial silicon, demand is weak due to organic silicon production cuts, seasonal decline in aluminum alloy operating rates, and reduced monthly polysilicon output. There are no short - term production cut plans for industrial silicon manufacturers, resulting in a slight supply - demand surplus. The cost of industrial silicon is basically stable. The commodity market's bullish sentiment is fading, and industrial silicon, with a weak fundamental outlook, may decline in a volatile manner, with a price range reference of (8,000, 8,800) [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - Supply - demand situation: Production cuts by major companies will reduce output, and potential export rush may lead to inventory reduction. - Trading strategy: Adopt range - bound trading, with low trading volume and cautious participation. There are no current arbitrage or option strategies [4][5]. Industrial Silicon - Supply - demand situation: Weak demand from downstream industries and a slight supply - demand surplus. - Trading strategy: Sell short at the upper end of the range, sell out - of - the - money call options, and there are no current arbitrage strategies [7][8]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking Market Performance - This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices changed little. Manufacturers had low shipment volumes and no large - scale hedging [11]. Downstream Demand - DMC weekly output was 43,600 tons, a 0.91% week - on - week decrease; polysilicon weekly output was 22,000 tons, a 13.27% week - on - week decrease; primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 58.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 58.4%, unchanged from the previous week [7][14]. Production - This week, industrial silicon weekly output was 78,400 tons, a 2.82% week - on - week decrease. The total number of open furnaces was 222, a decrease of 6 from the previous week. Tongwei Co., Ltd. will cut production of 8 submerged arc furnaces for its industrial silicon capacity, with 6 already cut this week [24]. Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory was 555,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,700 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 210,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,200 tons. Downstream raw material inventory was 233,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons [26]. Product Prices - This week, industrial silicon spot prices remained stable, as did DMC and terminal product prices [32][36]. Intermediate and Related Product Data - The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly, while the price and operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [42][46]. Raw Material Prices - This week, industrial silicon raw material prices remained stable [50]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking Price Trends - This week, the prices of some polysilicon, cells, and modules increased [55]. Component Data - From April 2026, export tax rebates for photovoltaic components will be removed, which may lead to a rush to export from January to March. It is expected that component production scheduling in January will increase to around 40GW. European component inventory has increased to 31.3GW, and domestic manufacturers' component inventory is 30GW, at a moderately low level [63]. Cell Data - Export tax rebates for photovoltaic cells will be reduced and then removed in 2027. It is expected that cell production scheduling in January will increase to around 48GW [64]. Silicon Wafer Data - Current silicon wafer inventory has decreased to 24.78GW. With the cancellation of export tax rebates in sync with components, there is still demand for silicon wafer exports. Silicon wafer production scheduling in January may increase to 50GW [70]. Polysilicon Data - This week, polysilicon output decreased slightly, and factory inventory increased to 320,000 tons. In January, GCL Technology will lower its operating rate, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. will halt production. Polysilicon output this month will drop below 90,000 tons [75].