东吴期货生猪周报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Spring Festival stocking will support short - term pig prices, but the abundant supply and the expectation of destocking of pressure - bar pigs will restrict the price increase. Future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and consumption realization [2] 3. Summary According to the Content Supply - side Information - The industry's slaughter volume remains low, and the behavior of holding back pigs for fattening continues. The inventory of reproductive sows has decreased month - on - month for four consecutive months to 39.9 million heads, alleviating the supply - side pressure [2] - Large - scale enterprises have lowered their slaughter plans, but the proportion of large pigs in stock is relatively high, and the increase in later slaughter may suppress prices. The overall supply of pigs in 2026 is still abundant, limiting the upward space for prices [2] Demand - side Information - The Spring Festival stocking has started. The fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises has slightly rebounded to 87.61%. Catering consumption has increased by 3.2% year - on - year. Coupled with the end of the bacon - curing season and the pre - festival consumption climb, demand has strengthened marginally [2]