光伏产业周报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. With cost support and high inventory in a tug - of - war, prices are expected to remain volatile, and an upward trend requires substantial demand recovery and accelerated inventory reduction [3]. - Polysilicon: Policy disturbances dominate market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, the futures market will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Main producers in Xinjiang and Gansu are generally in the red, leading to some voluntary production cuts. High - cost areas in the southwest have further limited production, tightening the supply. Coal prices have stabilized, and the price transmission effect in the photovoltaic industry chain provides significant cost support. However, downstream demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak, and high social inventory suppresses price increases [3]. - Futures Data: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8605 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.71%. The trading volume is 281,253 lots, with a weekly increase of 4.44%. The open interest is 238,869 lots, with a negligible weekly change [4]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products since April 1st has stimulated short - term export rush demand, potentially supporting polysilicon demand. The comprehensive cost line of leading enterprises is about 42,000 yuan/ton, providing a bottom - line support. However, regulatory interviews with leading enterprises have led to concerns about the collapse of the price - support logic, and there is significant inventory accumulation due to weak demand [3]. - Futures Data: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,200 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.14% but a weekly decrease of 2.14%. The trading volume is 21,717 lots, with a daily increase of 70.96% but a weekly decrease of 53.04%. The open interest is 46,220 lots, with a weekly decrease of 9.27% [5]. Photovoltaic Industry Chain Fundamentals - Production: Data on the weekly production of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang; the weekly production of polysilicon in China and overseas; the weekly production of silicon wafers in China; the monthly production of battery cells in China; and the monthly production of photovoltaic modules in China are presented [8][12][16]. - Inventory: Data on the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon, the total weekly inventory of polysilicon in China, the weekly inventory of silicon wafers, the weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery外销 factories, and the weekly finished - product inventory of photovoltaic modules are presented [27][28][29]. - Profit: Data on the profit of industrial silicon, the weekly profit of polysilicon, the profit of silicon wafers in China, and the process profit of single - crystal N - type battery cells in China are presented [32][33][34].