铝产业周报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Aluminum: Supply - Inner Mongolia still has electrolytic aluminum enterprises' capacity expansion, and the theoretical operating capacity of the industry is expected to increase; Demand - demand is growing steadily, with some short - term production cuts, but the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits remain high, and low inventory is the key support for prices. Overseas macro - situation and macro - factors may continuously support aluminum prices, and the market is currently showing a strong high - level oscillation [3]. - Alumina: Supply - overall, alumina supply is still in surplus, and there are still fundamental negative factors; Demand - electrolytic aluminum plants have low acceptance of high - priced goods, and the transaction price remains at a discount. The spot trading atmosphere of alumina is okay this week. As the ore price drops, the cost of alumina enterprises is expected to decrease, and the willingness to cut production is reduced. The short - term policy expectation still exists, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - There are data charts on the closing prices and trading volumes of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum futures, as well as seasonal data on price spreads, including Shanghai aluminum continuous - second - continuous seasonal, LME aluminum 3 - 15 spread seasonal, etc. [5][10] - There are also data charts on alumina futures closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads, as well as spot prices, price spreads, and basis of alumina and aluminum [15][17][18] 3.2 Upstream Supply - Bauxite: There are data on China's bauxite monthly production, import volume, and port inventory, including seasonal data and provincial - level production data [22][23] - Alumina: Data on alumina production, import volume, import profit and loss, and production capacity utilization rate are provided, including national and provincial - level weekly production capacity utilization rates [27][28][30] - Electrolytic Aluminum: There are data on China and global electrolytic aluminum monthly production, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly production, net import volume, and import profit and loss [35][37][41] 3.3 Downstream Demand - There are data on the production and production capacity utilization rate of various aluminum products, including aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum wires, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots, both monthly and weekly data [42][43] - Data on aluminum product exports, including the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, and the export profit of aluminum products are provided [51][53] - There are also data on the demand in related industries, such as real estate (housing construction and completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), power grid (power grid project investment), and photovoltaic (solar power project investment, photovoltaic new - installed capacity) [57][59][62] 3.4 Inventory - There are data on the inventory of bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, including the monthly inventory of bauxite in different regions, the in - plant inventory of alumina enterprises, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [66][69][72] 3.5 Cost and Profit - There are data on the prices of various raw materials, including domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas, and European electricity prices [75][76] - There is also data on alumina cost and China's electrolytic aluminum cost - profit situation [75][76]