广发期货《有色》日报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Friday night saw a sharp decline, erasing the previous week's gains. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors offer long - term demand support, while traditional electronics and white - goods sectors are weak [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom of copper is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. Short - term price strength is due to global inventory imbalances and supply concerns. However, real - terminal demand is weak, and prices may return to fundamental pricing. Attention should be paid to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - The nickel market is mainly affected by macro factors and Indonesian ore quota news. Although ore - end news provides some support, most of it has been digested. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The lower support comes from tight domestic zinc ore supply, and the upper pressure comes from expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with support around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows some resilience in the off - season. However, with high valuations, there is resistance to further price increases. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract running between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue a high - level oscillation, with the ADC12 price in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material price changes, imported supply, and downstream pre - holiday stockpiling [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Attention should be paid to ore - end news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - In the polysilicon market, demand is expected to improve due to export - rush demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price may be supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling period and monitor production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - Fundamental Data: November tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and December SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69%, and social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - Fundamental Data: December electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and November imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% [3]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 18.75% [5]. - Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply, Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% [5]. Zinc - Price and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - Fundamental Data: December refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and November exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - Inventory Changes: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.08% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - Fundamental Data: December lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - Inventory Changes: December lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - Fundamental Data: December alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - Inventory Changes: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum decreased [15]. - Fundamental Data: December recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the industry's operating rate decreased [15]. - Inventory Changes: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - Fundamental Data: December 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons, and exports increased by 13.18% [18]. - Inventory Changes: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% [18]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: N - type polysilicon feedstock average price increased by 0.18% to 54850 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [20]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and imports decreased by 27.05% [20]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.10 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Basis: East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [21]. - Fundamental Data: December national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - Inventory Changes: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].