原木期货日报-20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, there is a shortage of some specifications of spot goods and price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of reduced later shipments. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to change, and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate in the range of 760 - 800. If the price rebounds to the upper limit of the range, short - selling on rallies can be considered [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On January 16, the price of log 2601 was 770.0, unchanged from the previous day; log 2603 was 778.5, down 2.0 from the previous day with a decline of - 0.26%; log 2605 was 790.0, unchanged; log 2607 was 801.0, down 0.5 from the previous day with a decline of - 0.06%. The basis of the main contract was - 38.5, up 2.0 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 16 compared with the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiation pine was 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros/JAS cubic meter, both unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 19, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.966, up 0.003 from the previous day with a change of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 754.72 yuan, up 0.34 yuan from the previous day with a change of 0% [1] Supply: Monthly - In December, the port freight volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 million cubic meters from November with a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships at the port was 55.0, up 6.0 from the previous period with a growth rate of 12.24% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 9, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 269 million cubic meters, up 2 million cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 196.0 million cubic meters, up 1.0 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 0.51% [1][2] Demand - As of January 9, the daily average log出库量 was 5.75 million cubic meters, up 0.1 million cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in Shandong decreased slightly, while that in Jiangsu increased. The daily average log出库量 in Shandong was 2.79 million cubic meters, down 0.1 million cubic meters from the previous week with a decline of - 3%; in Jiangsu, it was 2.35 million cubic meters, up 0.18 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 8% [2] Arrival Forecast - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 more than the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, 18.1 million cubic meters more than the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]