瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to be adjusted strongly, with attention paid to the MA5 support, in the range of 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton. On the raw material side, the rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade have tightened the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants, and the planned reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia next year will bring production cut pressure to ferronickel production. On the supply side, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, with supply pressure still existing. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing. The market procurement willingness is not high, but the social inventory of stainless steel in the country maintains a seasonal slight decline due to limited arrivals. Technically, the position increases and the price is strong, with a strong long - position atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,305 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts is 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,631 lots, an increase of 170 lots; the position of the main contract is 141,891 lots, an increase of 2,178 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 46,118 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of stainless steel is 295 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 145,900 yuan/ton, down 3,450 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 538,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The leaders of China and Canada issued a joint statement. Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the import of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles, with the tax rate reduced from 100% to 6.1%. - Trump said that from February 1st, tariffs will be imposed on eight European countries until "completely acquiring Greenland"; many EU countries are considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to Europe; Canada is considering sending troops to Greenland. - The hottest candidate for the Fed Chairman has changed. Trump hopes that Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor; reports say that Riddell of BlackRock has a rising voice in the campaign for the Fed Chairman, and he had a smooth meeting with Trump on Thursday [2].