沪铜产业日报-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to decline, and the cost support from tight ore supply for copper prices remains. Supply is relatively sufficient, but affected by the off - season and high previous copper prices, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to continuous accumulation of refined copper social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades when the price is low, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,180 yuan/ton, up 410 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,841 dollars/ton, up 38 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 180 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 217,432 lots, down 8,501 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 51,946 lots, up 8,753 lots. The LME copper inventory is 143,575 tons, up 2,450 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 213,515 tons, up 32,972 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 49,575 tons, down 525 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 152,655 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,940 yuan/ton, down 915 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,805 yuan/ton, down 1,005 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 36 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 28 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 1,325 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 61.52 dollars/ton, up 23.92 dollars. The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons; the weekly rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 46.53 dollars/kiloton, down 1.12 dollars [2] 上游情况 - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,540 yuan/metal ton, down 540 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,240 yuan/metal ton, down 540 yuan. The weekly processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 123.60 million tons, up 3.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - The weekly social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,690 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,300 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 下游及应用 - The monthly output of copper products is 222.60 million tons, up 22.20 million tons. The cumulative monthly completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.90 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan; the cumulative monthly completed investment in real estate development is 82,788 billion yuan, up 4,197.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,810,000,000 pieces, up 418,000,000 pieces [2] 期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.11%, down 0.10%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.35%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 30.54%, down 0.0098%; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.62, up 0.1004 [2] 行业消息 - In 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Among the three major sectors, the added value of the mining industry increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.2%, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.4%. The output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 52.5%, 28.0%, and 25.1% respectively. In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 451.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 5,012.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The GDP in 2025 was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% at constant prices. The Fed's Vice - Chair Jefferson said the interest rate is in a range consistent with the neutral level; Fed Governor Bowman said that if the employment situation does not improve, officials should be prepared to further cut interest rates [2]