工业硅周报：低位震荡，关注多晶硅产量变动-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices in a low-level oscillation. The supply in January may decline by 10,000 - 20,000 tons to 380,000 - 390,000 tons, and the demand is likely to decline slightly by about 10,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the supply decline and potential further production cuts in polysilicon. The polysilicon monthly output is expected to drop to 70,000 - 90,000 tons in Q1 2026. The market is still slightly oversupplied, and the industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The upper price is pressured when the arbitrage window opens, while the lower price is supported by costs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy - Unilateral: Go long at the lower end of the price range and try short at the upper end [5]. - Arbitrage: The current arbitrage window is closed. If the futures price rises and the arbitrage window opens, conduct a positive arbitrage [5]. - Options: Buy out-of-the-money call options at low prices [5]. 3.2 Market Overview - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are oscillating, basis prices are oscillating, and the arbitrage space is closed. As of January 16, SMM's East China oxygenated Si5530 silicon is priced at 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton, Si4410 at 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and Si4210 at 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The market fundamentals are lackluster, with weak supply and demand. The downstream purchasing sentiment is average, and the outlook is not promising, so the market is expected to remain in a low-level oscillation [8]. 3.3 Supply - Monthly Production: In December 2025, the industrial silicon production slightly declined to 397,100 tons, with a cumulative production of 4.2678 million tons from January - December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In January 2026, the production is expected to further decline to 380,000 - 390,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5% according to SMM, mainly due to the reduction from the shutdown and maintenance of a small number of silicon furnaces in the north in December, partial production cuts by large factories in Xinjiang at the beginning of January, and marginal reductions in Sichuan, Yunnan and other regions [40]. - Regional Production and Operating Rates: The weekly production of Xinjiang sample silicon enterprises (with a capacity share of 79%) decreased to 41,680 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 86.01%. Yunnan sample silicon enterprises (30% capacity share) had a weekly production of 2,560 tons, with the operating rate remaining at 22.09%. Sichuan sample silicon enterprises (32% capacity share) had a weekly production of 0 tons, and the operating rate dropped to 0%. Northwest sample silicon enterprises (75% capacity share) had a weekly production of 11,875 tons, and the operating rate was 83%. The total production of the four regions was 55,900 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 640 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1,420 tons. The decline in Xinjiang's production led to the overall month-on-month decline [46]. 3.4 Demand - Polysilicon: The spot trading center of polysilicon has moved up, and the price difference between rod-shaped silicon and granular silicon has further narrowed. The weekly production decreased by 230 tons to 21,500 tons. In January, the production is expected to further decline to about 105,000 tons. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the monthly polysilicon production in Q1 2026 will drop to the range of 70,000 - 90,000 tons [54]. - Silicon Wafers: The weekly production of silicon wafers increased slightly, and the inventory decreased, possibly due to the rush for export demand to digest inventory [56]. - Battery Cells and Components: Silicon wafers are stable, battery cell prices continue to rise, and component prices are steadily increasing [61]. - Organic Silicon: After an agreement was reached at the organic silicon meeting, the weekly production slightly decreased to 45,200 tons. The DMC quotation increased to 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 250 yuan/ton, with mainly rigid demand purchases [68][74]. - Aluminum Alloys: The operating rates of aluminum alloys and recycled aluminum alloys remained unchanged, and the prices increased following the aluminum price. The production of aluminum alloys is expected to slightly increase from December to January, while exports are expected to decline. In December, affected by policy changes, the demand is expected to remain positive, but it may slightly decline in January [75][82][86]. - Exports: In November, the export volume of industrial silicon rebounded to 54,900 tons month-on-month. The export volume of primary polysiloxane in the organic silicon sector was 47,000 tons, and the aluminum alloy exports slightly declined but still had a significant year-on-year increase [89]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Raw Materials: The prices of silica and petroleum coke have declined, while coal prices are expected to rise in the long term [98]. - Electricity Prices: In December, entering the dry season, electricity prices increased and are expected to remain high in January [102]. - Cost: The cost of Si5530 is about 9,800 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the cost of Si4210 is about 10,100 - 12,800 yuan/ton [106]. - Profit: The profit is still fluctuating around the break - even point [111]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts increased by 395 lots to 11,283 lots this week, equivalent to 56,400 tons. The social inventory totaled 555,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The factory inventory increased by 4,200 tons to 207,500 tons, and the total inventory was about 820,000 tons [119].