瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a volatile and bearish outlook for the rebar market, advising attention to risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2605 contract decreased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio policy for commercial real estate mortgages, reducing the cost of down - payments. The cost - side support weakened, and the mainstream positions reduced long positions and increased short positions, putting pressure on the futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are below the 0 - axis, with the green bar expanding. The weekly output of rebar remained at a low level, with a capacity utilization rate of 41.72%. The apparent demand changed from a decline to an increase, and the inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the spot market for construction steel performed averagely, and the weakening of furnace materials also affected the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan; the position volume was 1,727,955 lots, a decrease of 27,384 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 68,059 lots, a decrease of 39,354 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,548 tons, a decrease of 2,132 tons; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 810 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 165.5081 million tons, an increase of 2.7087 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 404,800 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.502 million tons, an increase of 43,400 tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.82%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.46%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 41.72%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 52,700 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 52,300 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 71.88%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points. The monthly output of crude steel in China was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons. The monthly output of rebar in China was 14.34 million tons, an increase of 590,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 659.89 million square meters, a decrease of 38.24 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing starts was 58.77 million square meters, a decrease of 53.13 million square meters. The area of unsold commercial housing was 40.236 million square meters, a decrease of 8.75 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% compared with the previous year. Among them, residential investment was 635.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3%. In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; pig iron output was 60.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; steel output was 115.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to December, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 1446.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2]