多晶硅周报：高位震荡，关注减产落地情况-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View From the supply - demand perspective, demand expectations have improved due to the stimulus of export - rush demand. There are also expectations of production cuts on the supply side. The price has support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level after the decline. Component production scheduling may increase slightly, potentially exceeding 32GW, which is beneficial for digesting battery and silicon wafer inventories. Currently, polysilicon inventories are continuously increasing, but the output of silicon wafers and polysilicon shows an inverse relationship. Polysilicon production still has room to decline. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach during the cooling period, while paying attention to the implementation of production cuts and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot and Futures Price Trends - Spot: The overall spot price of polysilicon has stabilized. The spot price of N - type re - feedstock has decreased, and the price gap between rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon has further narrowed. According to SMM, the quoted price of N - type re - feedstock is 54.85 yuan/kg, a 0.27% decline, and the price of N - type granular silicon is 54.35 yuan/kg, a 0.18% increase. According to Antaike, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [10][13]. - Futures: The futures market has shown a downward trend in oscillations and has support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level, rising to around 50,000 yuan/ton on Friday. The price difference between different contracts shows a certain pattern [6]. 3.2. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: In January 2026, against the backdrop of weak photovoltaic installation demand, polysilicon production is expected to decline to around 105,000 tons. Weekly production has decreased by 230 tons to 21,500 tons. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the domestic polysilicon production in January 2026 is around 106,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 5%. Some leading enterprises will gradually shut down production in January for about half a year, and two other enterprises will implement significant production cuts. It is expected that the monthly production of polysilicon in the first quarter of 2026 will fall to the range of 70,000 - 90,000 tons [8][28]. - Demand: The demand side is still not optimistic, but attention should be paid to whether export - rush demand can drive the upward transmission of demand to the polysilicon sector. Currently, domestic demand is mediocre, but export demand has driven up component quotes. This week, the prices of components and battery cells have both increased. The price of battery cells has continued to rise by 3.85%, the price of components has increased steadily, with a distributed increase of about 3 - 6% and a centralized increase of about 1.3%. Silicon wafer production has increased slightly and inventory has decreased, possibly due to export - rush demand digesting inventory. The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.83GW, an increase of 0.31GW, and the inventory is 24.78GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45GW. In January, the total production scheduling of battery cells has dropped to 39.36GW, of which TOPCON production scheduling is 33.48GW. The production scheduling of components in January has further decreased from 37GW to around 32GW, and export - rush demand may bring a rebound in component production scheduling. The domestic installation volume in December was about 20GW, and installation in January was weak [8][29][40]. 3.3. Cost - Profit Analysis The price of polysilicon remains high and volatile. The profitability of polysilicon production enterprises in Q4 2025 is highly likely to recover, but the overall profitability in Q1 2026 may decline. The increase in polysilicon price is conducive to the profit recovery of photovoltaic products, especially polysilicon. In Q3, enterprise profits turned positive from negative, but downstream demand has decreased significantly, and there is no obvious sign of recovery in Q1, so there is no expectation of continuous profit growth [66][68]. 3.4. Import - Export - In November 2025, the import volume of polysilicon was 105 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%, the export volume was 320 tons, a month - on - month doubling, and the net export increased to 210 tons. - In November 2025, the import and export volumes of monocrystalline silicon wafers both decreased significantly, and the net export decreased by 540 tons. - In November, the export volume of battery cells increased by 20% month - on - month and doubled year - on - year, and the export of components rebounded by 3.6% month - on - month and increased by 23% year - on - year [71][79][83]. 3.5. Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes The polysilicon inventory has increased by 19,000 tons to 321,000 tons. This week, the warehouse receipts have increased by 130 lots to 4,560 lots, equivalent to 13,680 tons. Attention should be paid to whether export - rush demand can be transmitted to the polysilicon sector after digesting silicon wafer inventories [92].