瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai producing areas are still in the peak production period. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The inventory in bonded and general trade warehouses has both increased, with the total accumulation amplitude showing little change compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments arriving at the port are mainly African rubber. The total quantity continues to increase, and the bonded warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The inventory accumulation amplitude of general trade has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises will stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. - In terms of demand, last week, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain at a high level, and the overall production scheduling is expected to remain basically stable. There is still a phenomenon of production control in all - steel tire enterprises to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,745 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,655 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 186,443 lots, down 4,496 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 65,825 lots, down 1,827 lots. The net position of the top 20 of Shanghai rubber was - 47,777 lots, up 3,783 lots; the net position of the top 20 of 20 - number rubber was - 10,191 lots, up 1,242 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 109,890 tons, up 1,500 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were not clearly presented in the table structure but mentioned as 56,750 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,895 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 145 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 905 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,280 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 625 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.58 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.92 Thai baht/kg, up 0.27 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 58 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13,010,000 pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58,310,000 pieces, up 6,630,000 pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.1%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.15%, up 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.82%, down 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.84%, down 0.26 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first week of the future (January 18 - 24, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. In most areas north of the equator and in some areas of western Malaysia and southern Indonesia, the rainfall was at a relatively low level, and the impact on rubber tapping work increased slightly. In areas south of the equator, the impact on rubber tapping work in most non - red areas decreased. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. [2]