公募基金指数跟踪周报（2026.01.12-2026.01.16）：情绪被动降温，市场回归健康-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Regulatory policies led to a significant cooling of the A - share market last week, with measures like adjusting the margin ratio for margin trading and large - scale ETF sell - offs. This is a precise expectation management by regulators to control leverage risks and guide market rhythm, beneficial for the long - term health of the market [3][4][14]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has an adjustment demand after consecutive positive days, and with policy "cooling" signals, the market is likely to enter a short - term shock consolidation period, and overheated high - position theme stocks face adjustment pressure [4][14]. - Upcoming economic data will confirm the progress of front - loaded fiscal efforts, and funds are expected to shift from pure theme speculation to areas with performance support and clear logic [4][14]. - In the long run, the macro - policy cycle is in a loose window, and corporate profits are expected to enter a mild recovery channel as the decline in PPI narrows, and the game of the profit inflection point will support the subsequent market [14]. - The bond market sentiment has improved, but the further downward space for yields is limited due to non - comprehensive interest rate cuts and bond supply pressure in the first quarter [5][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week (2026.01.12 - 2026.01.16), major A - share indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index having weekly returns of - 0.45%, - 0.57%, and 1.00% respectively [13]. - Since mid - December 2025, A - share sentiment first rose slowly. From January 5th to 9th, 2026, the average daily turnover of the entire A - share market reached about 2.9 trillion yuan, and from January 12th to 14th, it further increased to about 3.8 trillion yuan per day, with a peak of nearly 4.0 trillion yuan on January 14th. After that, from January 15th to 16th, the average daily turnover dropped to about 3.0 trillion yuan [13]. - The North Exchange, CSI 2000, and CSI 1000 were the core active areas, possibly related to the source of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, with margin trading and individual investors as the main forces [13]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week, except for the 30 - year ultra - long - term bonds, bond yields fluctuated downward. The 1 - year Treasury yield dropped 4.63BP to 1.24%, the 10 - year Treasury yield decreased 3.58BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield slightly increased 0.12BP to 2.30%. The bond market continued to stabilize, and the term spread continued to widen [15]. - The central bank announced the first structural "interest rate cut" this year, lowering the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25%, exceeding market expectations. Coupled with the moderate cooling of the equity market, the bond market sentiment showed signs of recovery, but the short - term downward space for yields is still limited [5][15]. - Last week, US Treasury yields rose across the board. The 1 - year US Treasury yield increased 3BP to 3.55%, the 2 - year yield rose 5BP to 3.59%, and the 10 - year yield went up 6BP to 4.24%. The uncertainty about the next Fed Chairman was the main influencing factor [16]. - Last week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.36% to 1025.26 points, with data centers, new energy, and affordable housing sectors having larger declines. One new public REIT had progress in the primary market [17][18]. 1.3. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On January 15, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held the 2026 system work conference, aiming to "stabilize progress and improve quality and efficiency", focusing on risk prevention, strong supervision, and promoting high - quality development [19]. - The conference emphasized continuing to deepen public fund reform, expanding long - term fund sources, launching products and risk management tools suitable for long - term investment, and guiding long - term, rational, and value - based investment [19]. - In terms of regulatory enforcement, the conference insisted on strict law - based supervision, aiming to improve the effectiveness and deterrence of supervision, cracking down on malicious illegal acts such as financial fraud, price manipulation, and insider trading [19]. - Regarding innovative products, this year's focus is on the smooth implementation of the commercial real estate REITs pilot [20]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation for each fund. It selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and the style distribution is matched according to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index [24]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: CSI Active Equity Fund Index (930950.CSI) [25] 2.2. Investment Style - Based Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: It includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification [28]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [28] - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: Balanced - style fund managers weigh the valuation and growth of individual stocks and are diversified in industries. It selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification [30]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: CSI 800 (000906.SH) [30] - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: It aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies and find potential "dark horses". It selects 10 active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification [33]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: CSI 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [33] 2.3. Industry Theme - Based Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). It selects 15 funds based on evaluation indicators such as relative benchmark index win - rate, product drawdown, style stability, and overall performance competitiveness [35]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: Pharmaceutical Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research and Investment Platform) [36] - Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Auto, Home Appliances, etc.). It selects 10 funds based on evaluation indicators [36]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: Consumption Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research and Investment Platform) [37] - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). It selects 10 funds based on evaluation indicators [41]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: Technology Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research and Investment Platform) [42] - High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). It selects 10 funds based on evaluation indicators [46]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: High - end Manufacturing Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research and Investment Platform) [47] - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). It selects 5 funds based on evaluation indicators [49]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: Cyclical Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research and Investment Platform) [50] 2.4. Money Market Enhancement Index - Money Market Enhancement Strategy Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that exceeds money market funds. It mainly allocates money market funds with good performance and passive index - type bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). - Performance Comparison Benchmark: CSI Money Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [51] 2.5. Pure Bond Index - Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth upward curve while controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return ability [55]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money Market Fund Index [55] - Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, and adjusting duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [57]. 2.6. Fixed - Income + Index - Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection Index: The equity center is positioned at 10%. It selects 10 funds with an equity center (considering convertible bond and stock holdings) within 15% in the past three years and recently, focusing on the balance of return and risk and holding experience [60]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [60] - Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection Index: The equity center is positioned at 20%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing the balance of return and risk and performance elasticity [63]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [63] - High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection Index: The equity center is positioned at 30%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing the balance of return and risk and performance elasticity [66]. - Performance Comparison Benchmark: 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [66] 2.7. Other Pan - Fixed - Income Indices - Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects 5 funds from a sample space of bond funds with a convertible bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% on average in the past four quarters, based on an evaluation system considering fund product, fund manager, and fund company dimensions [69]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions. The underlying assets are overseas bonds [72]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the type of underlying assets, which are mainly mature and high - quality infrastructure projects [73].