油脂油料早报-20260120

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and exceeding the 1.7% reported in the same period last year [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to decline by 3% to 105 million tons, while the soybean crush volume is expected to increase to 60 million tons. Total soybean supply is expected to rise by 5% to 183.79 million tons, while demand is expected to fall by 1%. The ending inventory of soybean meal is expected to surge by 241% to 15.37 million tons [1]. - Brazil exported 1,307,357.38 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, with the daily average export volume increasing by 145% compared to the same period last year [1]. - China's edible vegetable oil imports in December were 670,000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to December were 6.94 million tons, up 3.2% year - on - year [1]. 3) Section Summaries Overnight Market Information - Brazilian Soybean Harvest: As of last Thursday, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than last year's 1.7%. Mato Grosso led the progress, while Parana lagged due to cold and cloudy weather [1]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports and Crush: In 2026, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to drop 3% to 105 million tons, while the crush volume will increase to 60 million tons. Total supply will rise 5% to 183.79 million tons, and demand will fall 1% to 168.42 million tons. The output of soybean meal is expected to increase by 2% to 47.4 million tons, and the export volume will increase by 6% to 24.7 million tons. The ending inventory of soybean meal will surge by 241% to 15.37 million tons. The output of soybean oil will increase by 3% to 11.7 million tons, exports will fall by 19% to 1.1 million tons, and domestic consumption will increase by 3% [1]. - Brazilian January Soybean Exports: Brazil exported 1,307,357.38 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, with a daily average of 118,850.67 tons, a 145% increase compared to January last year [1]. - China's Vegetable Oil Imports: In December, China's edible vegetable oil imports were 670,000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January to December were 6.94 million tons, up 3.2% year - on - year. December soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, up 23.6% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 350,000 tons, up 22.5% year - on - year. December palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, up 13% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 2.57 million tons, up 8.2% year - on - year. December rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 220,000 tons, up 2.9% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 2.13 million tons, up 13.1% year - on - year [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 13 to January 19, 2026 are provided [1].