格林期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector is "volatile and bullish" [1] 2. Core View - The precious metals market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and the short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying. It is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold their positions while controlling risks [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.77% to $4676.70 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 6.49% to $94.28 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 1.35% to 1053.46 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.88% to 23565.0 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of January 19, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous day at 1085.67 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust also remained unchanged at 16073.06 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.9% [1] - On Monday, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Europe, causing investors to turn to safe - haven currencies such as the Swiss franc. The US dollar index was under pressure during the day and finally closed down 0.33% at 99.05 [1] - Fed Chairman Powell will attend the Supreme Court hearing on Fed Governor Cook [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Kōichi Masuda will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23 and hold a general election on February 8 [1] - China's GDP in 2025 was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [1] Market Logic - The latest data shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is almost zero, and the market generally expects the first rate cut this year to be in June [1] - On January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the trading limits of relevant silver futures contracts starting from January 20 [1] - After the tension between the US and Iran, the dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland has continued to intensify recently. Continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties have driven up the demand for safe - havens and increased the attractiveness of gold and silver as safe - haven assets [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying. Long - position holders should continue to hold their positions and pay attention to risk control [2]