芳烃橡胶早报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, short - term upward space is limited, but before the new device is put into production, the overall pattern remains unchanged. After the valuation adjustment, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. - For MEG, the pattern is expected to remain weak under continuous new production, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, with limited inventory pressure and high operating rate. It has low - to - medium valuation and weak drivers, and pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - No clear overall view is provided for natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. - No clear overall view is provided for styrene and related products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Market Situation: The downstream end - TA device maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, the polyester load decreases faster, the inventory accumulates, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee remains stable. PX domestic maintenance reduces the load, the overseas load continues to increase, PXN shrinks month - on - month, the disproportionation benefit weakens, and the isomerization benefit remains high. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia is weak [1]. - Future Outlook: With high PX profits, domestic production remains high and overseas start - up recovers. The de - stocking amplitude in the far - month is revised down. TA's own processing fee is acceptable, and it turns to inventory accumulation with the pre - holiday polyester maintenance plan. The short - term upward space is limited, but before the new device is put into production, the overall pattern remains unchanged. After the valuation adjustment, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. MEG - Market Situation: The domestic oil - based operation is stable in the near - term, the coal - based load increases, driving the overall load to increase slightly. After the arrival at the port recovers, the port inventory accumulates significantly at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast during the week remains high. The basis strengthens month - on - month, and the coal - based benefit remains stable [1]. - Future Outlook: Recently, under the stable benefits of the mainstream EG process, the reduction mainly comes from the MTO part. The absolute amount and sustainability need further observation. Overall, inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under continuous new production, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Market Situation: The near - end device operates stably, the start - up rate remains at 97.6%, the production and sales improve month - on - month, the inventory accumulates slightly, and the spot processing fee weakens month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end decreases, the raw material inventory accumulates, the finished product inventory decreases, and the benefit improves month - on - month [1]. - Future Outlook: The downstream seasonality of staple fiber is expected to continue to weaken. With limited inventory pressure, the operating rate remains high. It has low - to - medium valuation and weak drivers, and the overall contradiction is limited. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Situation: There are daily and weekly changes in various rubber prices such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, and RMB - denominated mixed rubber, as well as changes in related spreads and processing profits. For example, the daily change of the RU main contract is - 150, and the weekly change is - 385 [1]. - Future Outlook: No clear future outlook is provided in the given content. Styrene and Related Products - Market Situation: There are daily changes in the prices of styrene - related products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene. For example, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) has a daily change of 170. The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS also have daily changes, such as the daily change of PS domestic profit being - 100 [1][4]. - Future Outlook: No clear future outlook is provided in the given content.