甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Core Views - For methanol, with the ongoing fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance. Some plants are shutting down or planning production cuts, waiting to restart after the situation in Iran stabilizes. Methanol has difficulty moving up or down, and the MTO profit caps the upside. Unless other downstream products increase in price, a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [1]. - For plastics, the market shows a volatile trend in the futures, stable spot prices, and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply is expected to be moderately pressured [2]. - For PP, the market is stable in the futures, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has slightly declined. The supply is expected to be moderately pressured in the 05 and subsequent periods [3]. - For PVC, the basis is improving, and the trading volume is average this week. The overall inventory is moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short - term, the seasonal production resumes, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [5]. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: The price of动力煤期货remains unchanged at 801, and the西北 - folded price has a daily change of -25 [1]. - Industry Situation: Iran's conflict continues to ferment. Some MTO plants are shutting down or reducing production, waiting for the normal situation in Iran to restart. The MTO profit restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [1]. Plastics - Price Data: The price of东北亚乙烯has a daily change of -30, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -28. The two - oil inventory and the number of warehouse receipts are decreasing [2]. - Industry Situation: The futures market is volatile, the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The oil - based and coal - based profits are deteriorating, and the social inventory is increasing [2]. PP - Price Data: The price of山东丙烯remains unchanged, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -14. The basis is stable [3]. - Industry Situation: The futures market is stable, the basis is weak, and the import and export profits are negative. The supply is temporarily stable in January, and the inventory is moderately high [3]. PVC - Price Data: The price of西北电石remains unchanged, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -30. The basis has a daily change of +30 [5]. - Industry Situation: The basis is improving, the trading volume is average, and the overall inventory is moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [5].