永安期货有色早报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week due to US tariff disturbances and high US inventories. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster than expected, but the post - festival destocking may also be rapid. In the medium - term, the report maintains a bullish view on copper prices as the supply is limited and demand has an increment [1] - For aluminum, the basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are still at low levels, with continuous inventory accumulation and weak consumption demand. Although automobile consumption is expected to decline, photovoltaic installation and export expectations provide short - term domestic support. Overseas, the tight spot liquidity and potential active restocking may support aluminum prices [1] - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but long - term capital investment is limited and there is a supply disturbance of about 100,000 tons from Iranian zinc mines. The price is expected to be difficult to fall deeply under the macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities in month - spreads [2] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and slow domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [3] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with high - level production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventory with a slight destocking. The price is mainly driven by nickel - related news in the short - term [3] - For lead, the price fluctuates at a high level this week. The supply is expected to increase in January, while the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has started to accumulate, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 next week, with a short - term strategy of short - selling on rallies [5] - For tin, the price fluctuates greatly this week, affected by capital sentiment. There are supply disturbances in major countries, and the smelters' willingness to deliver to warehouses is strong at high prices. It is suggested to wait and see or focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is in a balanced and relatively loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost. In the long - term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [11] - For lithium carbonate, the price fluctuates on the futures market. The short - term supply - demand is approaching equilibrium with an expected inventory accumulation of about 1,400 tons per month in January. The absolute price is greatly affected by the futures market, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper had a change of 15, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 581, and the LME inventory increased by 3,850 [1] - Market Analysis: The price pulled back in the second half of the week due to US tariff disturbances and high US inventories. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster than expected, but the post - festival destocking may also be rapid. In the medium - term, the supply is limited and demand has an increment, so the report maintains a bullish view on copper prices [1] Aluminum - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 160, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,000 [1] - Market Analysis: The basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are still at low levels, with continuous inventory accumulation and weak consumption demand. Although automobile consumption is expected to decline, photovoltaic installation and export expectations provide short - term domestic support. Overseas, the tight spot liquidity and potential active restocking may support aluminum prices [1] Zinc - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai zinc decreased by 380, the LME inventory decreased by 1,475 [2] - Market Analysis: On the supply side, the domestic and imported TC is accelerating to decline, and the domestic zinc concentrate is tightening in the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. On the demand side, the domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The market is optimistic about the zinc allocation elasticity, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore increased by 1, and the LME inventory decreased by 24 [3] - Market Analysis: The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and slow domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [3] Stainless Steel - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50 [3] - Market Analysis: The fundamentals remain weak, with high - level production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventory with a slight destocking. The price is mainly driven by nickel - related news in the short - term [3] Lead - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the spot import gain increased by 3.58, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,850 [5] - Market Analysis: The price fluctuates at a high level this week. The supply is expected to increase in January, while the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has started to accumulate, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 next week, with a short - term strategy of short - selling on rallies [5] Tin - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the spot import gain decreased by 34,413.19, and the LME inventory increased by 505 [8] - Market Analysis: The price fluctuates greatly this week, affected by capital sentiment. There are supply disturbances in major countries, and the smelters' willingness to deliver to warehouses is strong at high prices. It is suggested to wait and see or focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 240, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 288 [11] - Market Analysis: The supply - demand is in a balanced and relatively loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost. In the long - term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [11] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Market Data: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 7,000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 240 [13] - Market Analysis: The price fluctuates on the futures market. The short - term supply - demand is approaching equilibrium with an expected inventory accumulation of about 1,400 tons per month in January. The absolute price is greatly affected by the futures market, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13]