纯碱、玻璃日报-20260120

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 3. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is facing dual pressures of rising production and weakening demand, with inventory accumulation likely to continue. In the short - term, it will probably maintain a weak and volatile pattern. It's not advisable to go long rashly, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - The glass industry is in a new cycle of capacity clearance. Short - term supply contraction will support prices, but downstream real - estate data is declining, and the cancellation of export tax rebates squeezes profit margins. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On January 19, the main soda ash contract SA605 fluctuated weakly, closing at 1192 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day, with a reduction of 38,955 lots in positions [7]. - The current soda ash market has an imbalance between supply and demand. With production rising, demand weakening, and downstream destocking willingness low, the inventory accumulation trend will continue. The weak fundamentals of the downstream float glass industry and the cancellation of the glass products export tax rebate policy further suppress demand. It is not recommended to go long in the short - term, and a short - on - rebound strategy is suitable for the medium - to - long - term [8]. Glass - On January 19, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 was weak. The glass production lines are in overall losses, and there is an expectation of cold - repair before the festival, which will further reduce supply. The inventory is still high. Although short - term supply contraction will support prices, the downstream real - estate data is declining, and the cancellation of export tax rebates squeezes profit margins. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. 4.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][14][17]