建信期货油脂日报-20260120

Report Information - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The trends of the three major oils are diverging. Due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the far - month is expected to increase, causing the prices of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to fall. The expected release of the US biofuel blending quota has boosted the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the upcoming export data for the first 20 days of January. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - P2605: The previous settlement price was 8618, the opening price was 8660, the highest price was 8684, the lowest price was 8606, the closing price was 8648, with a rise of 30 and a rise rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 358548, and the open interest was 413122, a decrease of 1951 [7] - P2609: The previous settlement price was 8608, the opening price was 8632, the highest price was 8662, the lowest price was 8592, the closing price was 8622, with a rise of 14 and a rise rate of 0.16%. The trading volume was 19126, and the open interest was 66014, a decrease of 40 [7] - Y2605: The previous settlement price was 7978, the opening price was 8014, the highest price was 8024, the lowest price was 7964, the closing price was 7996, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.23%. The trading volume was 209449, and the open interest was 716725, an increase of 584 [7] - Y2609: The previous settlement price was 7852, the opening price was 7866, the highest price was 7902, the lowest price was 7842, the closing price was 7876, with a rise of 24 and a rise rate of 0.31%. The trading volume was 22233, and the open interest was 107080, an increase of 3032 [7] - OI605: The previous settlement price was 9038, the opening price was 8861, the highest price was 8978, the lowest price was 8860, the closing price was 8902, with a fall of 136 and a fall rate of 1.50%. The trading volume was 367634, and the open interest was 253596, a decrease of 16032 [7] - OI609: The previous settlement price was 9004, the opening price was 8833, the highest price was 8947, the lowest price was 8827, the closing price was 8923, with a fall of 81 and a fall rate of 0.90%. The trading volume was 13371, and the open interest was 12649, an increase of 2915 [7] - Spot Quotations: - East China rapeseed oil traders' quotations: For East China March - transferred triple - pressed rapeseed oil, it is 05 + 720. For genetically - modified first - grade rapeseed oil in the East China spot market, it is 05 + 1300, and triple - pressed rapeseed oil is 05 + 650 from March to May in East China, 05 + 600 from April to May in East China [7] - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: For first - grade soybean oil, the spot price is Y05 + 520; from February to March it is Y2605+480; from February to May it is Y2605+400; from March to May it is Y2605+360; from April to May it is Y2605+300; from May to July it is Y2605+240; from June to September it is Y2605+190; from July to September it is Y2605+200. For third - grade soybean oil, it is 05 + 450, and for degummed soybean oil, it is 05 + 350 [7] - Dongguan traders' palm oil quotations: For 18 - degree palm oil from Guangzhou Yihai, it is 05 + 170; for 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 0; for national - standard 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, it is 05 + 50; for 52 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 - 200; for 33 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 20 [7] - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the purchase of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the release of the US biofuel blending quota, and the January 1 - 20 palm oil export data. Adopt the arbitrage strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - From January 1 - 15, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 18.42% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 18.09% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.03% month - on - month. The palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 435,882 tons, the same as that from December 1 - 15. The export volume to China was 17,000 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to 58,000 tons in the same period last month [10][11] 3.3 Data Overview - Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast: Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast. If the prediction comes true, it will increase by 4.3% year - on - year and set a new record. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year to 48.33 million hectares, and the average yield per unit area will be 3,728 kg per hectare, a 2.8% increase compared to the 2024/25 season [16] - Domestic Palm Oil Inventory: As of the end of the third week of 2026, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 677,600 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week; the contract volume was 39,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to last week. The inventory of 24 - degree and below palm oil was 653,800 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week, and the high - grade palm oil inventory was 23,800 tons, the same as last week [16]