《能源化工》日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - Futures Prices: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - Spreads: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - Operating Rates: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - Inventory: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - Futures Prices: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - Spreads: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - Inventory: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - Operating Rates: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - Monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - Fundamental Data: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - Inventory: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - Downstream Cash Flows: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - Inventory: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - PVC and Caustic Soda Prices: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - Supply: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - Demand: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - Inventory: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - Futures Prices and Positions: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - Raw Material and Spot Prices: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - Spreads and Basis: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - Downstream Products: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - Supply - Demand: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - Supply - Demand: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - LPG Prices and Spreads: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - External Prices: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - Inventory: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - Operating Rates: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].