建信期货国债日报-20260120

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Highlights - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In January, the bond market is entering a phase where negative factors are gradually materializing. Although the short - term possibility of a second interest rate cut is low and the policy expectations are not high, the central bank still has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, with a loose orientation unchanged. The supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter may present allocation opportunities, and the market may remain volatile in the short term [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: GDP data released in the morning met expectations. Despite the marginal weakening of economic activities in December, the short - term possibility of a second interest rate cut is low, and policy expectations are not high. Coupled with the increased disturbance of the tax period to the capital market this week, treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly and closed slightly lower across the board [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds with various maturities changed within a narrow range. The decline of long - term active bonds was within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.8405%, down 0.25bp [9] - Capital Market: The inter - bank capital market was stable. The net reverse repurchase investment in the open market today was 7.22 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index changed little. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.32%. The 7 - day capital interest rate rose 3.42bp to 1.48%. The medium - and long - term capital was stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.63% - 1.64% [10] - Conclusion: In January, the bond market's negative factors are gradually being realized. However, the central bank still has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of economic data this week, there will be a 1.5 - month data window period. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean entering a policy observation period, and the easing expectations may not significantly increase before the Two Sessions in March, and the market may maintain a volatile trend [11][12] 2. Industry News - GDP Data: In 2025, China's GDP was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a 5% increase over the previous year at constant prices. The added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.9%, the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%, and the fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% [13] - Housing Price Data: In December 2025, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened. The prices of new homes in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the decline of second - hand housing prices decreased by 0.9% [13] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on January 19, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - Money Market: The report includes information on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]