建信期货集运指数日报-20260120

Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows signs of peaking. The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports stopped rising and fell last weekend, and the SCFIS index also declined slightly on Monday. Multiple airlines have started to lower their quotes for late January. The signal of airlines reducing prices to attract cargo is evident, and the inflection point of the spot high should have appeared. With the Red Sea situation causing disruptions but airlines resuming flights, it is likely that normal passage will be restored this year. Attention should be paid to short-selling opportunities in the April contract during the off - season [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports was reported at $1676/TEU, a 2.5% decline from the previous period. Multiple airlines, including Maersk, OOCL, HMM, and ONE, have lowered their quotes for late January [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Focus on short - selling opportunities in the April contract during the off - season [8]. 3.2. Industry News - Market Overview (January 12 - January 16): To cope with the "Spring Festival" holiday, cargo volume increased slightly, but freight rates on ocean routes decreased slightly, and the comprehensive index declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on January 16 was 1574.12 points, a 4.4% decline from the previous period [9]. - European Routes: The Sentix January euro - zone investor confidence index was - 1.8, better than the expected - 4.9. Transport demand was stable with a slight increase, but the average freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports on January 16 was $1676/TEU, a 2.5% decline from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: Similar to European routes, but the spot market booking price declined more. The average freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports on January 16 was $2983/TEU, a 7.7% decline from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The number of first - time unemployment benefit applicants in the US in the second week of January was 198,000, better than expected. The shipping market supply - demand situation was generally stable, and the spot market booking price fluctuated slightly. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports on January 16 were $2194/FEU and $3165/FEU respectively, with changes of - 1.1% and + 1.2% from the previous period [9][10]. - Policy News: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that the adjustment of the contract months of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures would be implemented from February 10, 2026, with new contracts EC2605, EC2607, EC2609 added, and no addition of EC2603 considering the main contract switch. EC2703 will be added on March 31, 2026 [10]. - International News: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan on January 14. On January 12, the US and the UK launched a large - scale military strike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels warned Saudi Arabia against military action [10]. 3.3. Data Overview 3.3.1. Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | 2026/1/19 | 2026/1/12 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1954.19 | 1956.39 | - 2.2 | - 0.1% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 1305.27 | 1323.98 | - 18.71 | - 1.4% | [12] 3.3.2. Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - Multiple figures show the trends of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European line futures, as well as shipping - related data trends such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [18][22]