贵金属日评-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to be strong. Investors are advised to take a long - biased approach but control the position size, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries due to the Greenland issue has increased geopolitical risks, pushing up the prices of gold and silver in the Asian session on the 19th. London gold approached the $4700 per ounce mark. The adjustment risk in precious metals was fully released in the late December 2025 correction. This week, attention should be paid to China's annual GDP, US November PCE inflation, the Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting, the Greenland issue, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff measures [4] - The previous closing prices, highest prices, lowest prices, closing prices, price change percentages, open interest, and changes in open interest of domestic precious metal contracts such as the Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index are presented [5] Medium - term Market - Trump will focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of the precious metal sector. In 2026, the precious metal sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but the large influx of investment funds will also significantly increase price volatility. Investors are recommended to take a long - biased approach, and conservative traders can consider cross - product arbitrage. Long hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [5] Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump plans to impose a 10% import tariff on goods from eight European countries on February 1st, increasing to 25% on June 1st until the US reaches an agreement to purchase Greenland. EU countries may impose tariffs worth 93 billion euros on the US or restrict US companies from entering the EU market [16] - Canada and China have reached a preliminary trade agreement to cut tariffs on electric vehicles and rapeseed. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter at a 6.1% tariff rate, and China will lower the tariff rate on Canadian rapeseed to about 15% by March 1st. Trump supports Canadian Prime Minister Carney [16] - Trump may keep economic advisor Hassett in his position. He is considering candidates for the next Fed Chair. Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman said the weak job market may deteriorate rapidly and the Fed should be ready to cut rates again if necessary. Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson signaled support for keeping rates unchanged in the January meeting and is cautiously optimistic about the economy, labor market, and inflation in the coming year [17]