建信期货棉花日报-20260120

Report Overview - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton futures are in a wide - range shock adjustment phase and are awaiting new drivers. The cotton market shows different trends in supply and demand. The supply side has relatively high inventory levels, while the demand side shows certain growth in the clothing and textile industry [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Zhengzhou cotton futures are in a shock - adjustment state. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang is different. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with high - count yarns performing well and medium - low - count and air - spun yarns facing inventory pressure. The cotton fabric market has a weak trading atmosphere at the end of the year, and production is expected to decline [7] - Supply Situation: As of January 18, 2026, the national cumulative cotton inspection is 6.9915 million tons, with 6.9046 million tons in Xinjiang. In December 2025, cotton imports are 180,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative cotton imports from January to December 2025 are 1.07 million tons, a decrease of 1.57 million tons year - on - year. The cotton processing volume in the 2025/26 season is increasing rapidly, and the commercial inventory level at the end of December is higher than last year [8] - Demand Situation: In December 2025, the revenue of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China is 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The cumulative revenue from January to December 2025 is 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [8] 3.2 Industry News - Sales Revenue: In December 2025, the revenue of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China is 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The cumulative revenue from January to December 2025 is 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [9] - Import Volume: In December 2025, China's cotton imports are 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (31.0% increase). The cumulative cotton imports from January to December 2025 are 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons (59.1% decrease). In December 2025, China's棉纱 imports are 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (11.9% increase). The cumulative 棉纱 imports from January to December 2025 are 1.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons (1.5% decrease) [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inter - contract spreads, commercial and industrial inventories, and currency exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][27]