建信期货生猪日报-20260120

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be range - bound as consumption recovers and supply remains relatively abundant. The 03 futures contract is likely to trend weakly due to expected slight increase in supply, high second - fattening pressure, seasonal sporadic outbreaks of the epidemic, and the post - holiday consumption off - season [7] Content Summaries by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 19th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downwards after a short rise, closing in the red. The highest price was 12,140 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,705 yuan/ton, down 2.09% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 278 lots to 356,946 lots [6] - Spot Market: On the 19th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.30 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - Supply Side: The enthusiasm for second - fattening before New Year's Day increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is currently higher than the same period last year, waiting to be gradually slaughtered. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. The northern breeding side is slaughtering as normal, while the southern side is controlling the volume to raise prices, and the overall slaughter weight has not changed much [7] - Demand Side: Second - fattening is mainly on the sidelines. The demand for curing and sausage - making is near the end, terminal consumer consumption has increased slightly, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, with the operating rate and slaughter volume slightly increasing. On January 19th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,500, down 1,000 from the previous day, up 2,600 week - on - week, and down 16,000 month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 15th, the average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market was 425 yuan/head, up 62 yuan/head from the previous week [8] 3. Data Overview - Cost and Profit: As of January 15th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week. The expected cost of fattening with purchased piglets was 12.24 yuan/kg, up 0.49 yuan/kg week - on - week. The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was +25.8 yuan/head, up 25.8 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 100.5 yuan/head, up 29.3 yuan/head week - on - week [16] - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of January 15th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.85 kg, up 0.31 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week increase of 0.24%), down 1.33 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%), and up 5.89 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 4.79%) [16]