广发期货日评-20260120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares experienced a decline after continuous volume increase, with significant trading divergence, shrinking trading volume, and cooling market sentiment. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield is around 1.85%, and the bond market trend may depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in Q1. In the short term, it is in a volatile pattern, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between 1.83% - 1.88% and the T2603 contract between 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range - bound operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and basis - widening strategies for TS, T, and TF contracts [2] - Gold prices continued to hit new highs due to the intensification of disputes between the US, Europe, and Greenland. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value. Silver trading should be cautious, and out - of - the - money options can be sold for volatility - reduction gains. Platinum futures should be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy near the 20 - day moving average, with a price range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium is weaker than platinum, and out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 A - shares - A - shares had a decline after continuous volume increase, with significant trading divergence, shrinking trading volume, and cooling market sentiment. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.85%, and the bond market trend may depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in Q1. In the short term, it is in a volatile pattern, with the 10 - year bond yield fluctuating between 1.83% - 1.88% and the T2603 contract between 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range - bound operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and basis - widening strategies for TS, T, and TF contracts [2] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value. Silver trading should be cautious, and out - of - the - money options can be sold for volatility - reduction gains. Platinum futures should be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy near the 20 - day moving average, with a price range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium is weaker than platinum, and out - of - the money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [2] 3.4 Shipping - The container shipping market showed a downward trend [2] 3.5 Steel - Steel prices may be dragged down by the weakening of raw material prices. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are weak, and long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be held [2] 3.6 Black Metals - Iron ore supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are continuously increasing. The price fluctuates widely in the range of 770 - 830. Coking coal prices in Shanxi have more increases than decreases, with improved trading volume, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures fluctuations. It is considered to be in a weak and volatile state, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke can be adopted. Coke prices are proposed to be raised by mainstream coke enterprises, and port trading prices follow futures fluctuations. It is also in a weak and volatile state, and the same arbitrage strategy can be used. Ferrosilicon has cost support and marginal improvement in supply - demand, with a wide - range fluctuation between 5300 - 5800. Manganese - silicon has a general increase in manganese ore overseas quotes, and market sentiment has declined, with a wide - range fluctuation between 5600 - 6000 [2] 3.7 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are continuously tight. Light long positions can be held cautiously, with the main contract focusing on the support at 97500 - 98500. Alumina spot inventories increased by 7.9 tons weekly, and the market is in a weak and volatile state. The main contract operates in the range of 2600 - 2900, and short positions can be taken on rallies. Aluminum is in a high - level volatile state, and there is a risk of an emotional correction in the short term. The main contract operates in the range of 23000 - 25000. It is not recommended to chase long positions due to signs of over - increase, and long positions can be established after a correction. Aluminum alloy inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot market maintains rigid demand. The main contract operates in the range of 22000 - 24000, and an arbitrage strategy of long AD03 and short AL03 can be adopted. Zinc prices are in a corrective state, and the spot premium is stable. The main contract focuses on the support at 23800, and a long - term long - on - dips strategy can be adopted, and the cross - market reverse spread can be held. Tin market sentiment has declined, and tin prices opened lower at night. Futures operations should be cautious. Nickel has gradually digested the impact of news, and the market is in a volatile adjustment state. The main contract operates in the range of 138000 - 148000. Stainless steel is mainly in a narrow - range volatile state, with a game between cost and supply - demand. The main contract operates in the range of 13800 - 14600 [2] 3.8 New Energy - Industrial silicon futures rose due to the news of production cuts by large - scale enterprises. The main contract operates in the range of 8200 - 9200. Polysilicon spot average prices increased slightly, and futures are in a strong and volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see. Lithium carbonate is in a wide - range adjustment state, with the main contract operating in the range of 140000 - 150000. Short - term range - bound operations can be carried out [2] 3.9 Energy Chemicals - PX is under short - term pressure due to increased supply expectations and weak near - term supply - demand under high valuation. It fluctuates between 7000 - 7500 in the short term and can be considered for long positions in the medium term. The PX 5 - 9 spread can be observed for now. PTA has a limited pre - holiday driving force under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation and follows raw material fluctuations. It fluctuates between 4900 - 5300 in the short term, and long positions can be tried below 5000. The TA 5 - 9 spread can be in a low - level positive spread. Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak and follows raw material fluctuations. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin on the disk can be shorted when it is high. Bottle - chip production lines are being overhauled, and factories are continuously reducing inventories, which supports the processing margin. The strategy is the same as that of PTA. The main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold on rallies. Ethylene glycol is facing seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. The price in January is still under pressure. EG 5 - 9 can be shorted on rallies, and the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4100 can hold. Pure benzene supply - demand has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventories. Shorting opportunities for BZ03 can be focused on, and the EB - BZ spread can be shorted when it is high. Styrene supply - demand is temporarily tight, but the rebound space is limited under high valuation. It is not recommended to chase long positions in the short term. Shorting opportunities for EB03 and shorting opportunities for high EB processing margins can be focused on. LLDPE has a negative spread in orders and a decline in trading volume. Previous long positions have taken profits, and it is advisable to wait and see. PP has a weak supply - demand situation and a weak and volatile price. PDH profit expansion can be held. Methanol has a decline in geopolitical disturbances and light trading volume, with a weak price. It is advisable to wait and see. Caustic soda supply - demand remains weak, and the spot price is under pressure. It is advisable to wait and see. PVC export disturbances amplify market fluctuations, and the short - term trading focus is not on supply - demand. Market fluctuations are amplified, and short positions can wait and see. Urea trading has cooled down, and market confidence has weakened. Previous long positions can take profits at the right time, and the lower support level can be observed. Soda ash production capacity has increased, and daily output has reached a new high, while demand is still weak. It is in a weak and volatile state. Glass is in the off - season, with a continuous decline in the production - sales rate. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and production line changes. It is in a weak and volatile state. Natural rubber prices are weak and volatile due to the decline in overseas raw material prices. It is advisable to wait and see. Synthetic rubber is under pressure due to the decline in commodity sentiment and high inventory in the BR industry chain. Opportunities to expand the spread between BR2603 and NR2603 can be focused on [2] 3.10 Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a range - bound and weak state due to lack of market drivers. Pig supply is still at a high level, and the market is under pressure, with prices in a range - bound state. Corn transportation is blocked, and prices are at a high - level and volatile state. Edible oils may have a short - term correction due to the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and palm oil may fluctuate around 8650 in the short term. Sugar prices are under pressure on rallies due to the holiday closure of the raw sugar market. Cotton prices are in a weak adjustment state due to the continuous game between supply and demand. Egg prices are mainly stable, and the market is in a range - bound state. Apple inventory reduction progress is slow, and futures prices are in a weak and volatile state. Put options can be bought. Jujube demand is weak, and futures prices are declining. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [2]