建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20260120

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 19, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded and then weakened again. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal continued to decline after a dead - cross the previous day, and the red bars of the daily MACD of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days. News factors hindered the recent rise of coal - coke futures, and fundamental changes led to the weak and volatile trend of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise, and it is still advisable to try to buy hedging or investment positions at low prices after the correction [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Futures Market: On January 19, for the J2605 contract, the previous closing price was 1717 yuan/ton, the opening price was 1720 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1762 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1713.5 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.04%, the trading volume was 23,136 lots, the open interest was 37,637 lots (a decrease of 1,090 lots), and the capital inflow/outflow was - 0.34 billion yuan. For the JM2605 contract, the previous closing price was 1171 yuan/ton, the opening price was 1172.5 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1199 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1161 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1174.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80%, the trading volume was 1,006,909 lots, the open interest was 502,734 lots (an increase of 5,024 lots), and the capital inflow/outflow was 0.92 billion yuan [5]. - Black - series Futures Positions: On January 19, in the black - series futures market, the long - short positions and their changes in different contracts varied. For example, in the RB2605 contract, the top 20 long positions were 1,063,915 lots (a decrease of 40,406 lots), the top 20 short positions were 1,121,177 lots (a decrease of 5,779 lots), and the long - short difference was - 34,627 lots with a deviation of - 3.17%. [6] 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On January 19, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton with no change. The aggregated price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in different regions such as Tangshan, Lvliang, and Linfen also remained unchanged [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal continued to decline after a dead - cross the previous day, and the red bars of the daily MACD of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days [8]. 3.3 News and Fundamental Analysis - News: On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived at Baowu's Majishan Port. On January 18, an explosion occurred at the Baotou Steel Branch in Inner Mongolia. On January 17, US President Trump announced tariffs on 8 European countries' exports to the US, which triggered EU's consideration of counter - measures [10]. - Fundamentals: Recently, independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 4 weeks, and the loss margin has widened for 2 consecutive weeks. Their coke production decreased slightly after 2 consecutive weeks of increase. Port coke inventories have been rising for 4 consecutive weeks from the lowest level since mid - January last year, and steel mill coke inventories have been rising for 4 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since mid - October last year, while coking enterprise coke inventories have been falling for 4 consecutive weeks from the highest level since late July last year. Since January 12, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded again. Except on January 16, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has been above 190,000 tons. Recently, the coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants have increased significantly, while the coking coal inventories of steel enterprises and ports have been relatively stable [11]. 3.4 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting on January 16 emphasized promoting consumption. The Ministry of Commerce held talks on China - Canada economic and trade relations. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed urban renewal tasks. National statistical data showed the production and economic indicators of various industries in 2025, including the production of coke, steel, etc., and the economic operation data of the real estate market. The National Energy Administration announced that China's total social electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kWh in 2025. Some companies released their operation data and performance forecasts, and there were also news about international trade and corporate development strategies [12][13][14][15]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated spot price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron production, the coke inventories of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of sample mines, the inventories of clean coal and raw coal in sample mines, the coking coal inventories of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class coke and Linfen's low - sulfur primary coking coal with the May contracts [16][17][24][29][30][37].