美国私人信用监测（英）2025

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the private credit industry in 2025 Core Insights - Direct lending volume decreased in Q4 2025, marking it as the weakest quarter of the year with $56.6 billion across 189 deals, the lowest volume in two years and the lowest transaction count since Q3 2023 [4] - For the full year 2025, direct lending volume was estimated at $247 billion, down 11% from 2024, with 842 transactions, a 16% decrease from the previous year, yet it was the second-busiest year in at least eight years [4][12] - Buyout financing in Q4 2025 was estimated at $18.2 billion, down from $25.1 billion in Q3, with only 46 transactions, the lowest since Q3 2023 [4] - Private credit/middle-market CLO issuance reached a record of $43.1 billion for the year, despite a quarterly drop to $10.3 billion in Q4 [4] - The outlook for 2026 suggests strengthening M&A activity and improved market sentiment, with expectations for higher transaction volumes [4] - Refinancing activity was robust, with $34.1 billion of direct-lender loans refinanced in the broadly syndicated loan market, an 18% increase from 2024 [4] - Credit spreads remained steady in Q4 2025, with a median of S+475, and 48% of buyout deals fell into the 450-499 bps range, up from 18% in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Direct Lending Volume & Counts - Q4 2025 saw a decline in direct lending volume and deal count, with the lowest figures recorded since Q3 2023 [4][8] - The annual direct lending volume for 2025 was $247 billion, down 11% from 2024, while the deal count decreased by 16% [12] Buyout Financing - Buyout financing volume reached $81.4 billion for the full year, the highest in at least eight years, despite a decline in deal count to 214 from 248 in 2024 [4] CLO Issuance - Private credit/middle-market CLO issuance set an annual record of $43.1 billion, although Q4 issuance fell to $10.3 billion [4] Market Outlook - The 2026 outlook indicates a strengthening M&A environment and increased transaction volumes, supported by stable financial markets and corporate focus on long-term growth [4] Refinancing Activity - Direct lenders refinanced $36.9 billion of syndicated loans, the highest level in four years, while $34.1 billion of direct-lender loans were refinanced in the syndicated market [4] Credit Spreads - Credit spreads in Q4 2025 held steady, with a median of S+475, and a significant portion of buyout deals fell within the 450-499 bps range [4]