原油成品油早报-20260120

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Although Trump's stance has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, while the total waterborne inventory has decreased month - on - month but is higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose, with the WTI and Brent markets decoupled. In terms of refinery profits, the sharp rise in European natural gas has strengthened the cracking of European diesel, and the overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the rising crude oil prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain high [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - Ukraine's DTEK power company reported that its energy facilities in Odessa were "severely" damaged in a Russian night attack [3]. - International oil prices fell as the risk of supply disruption decreased. As of 21:58 Beijing time on January 19, the March Brent crude oil futures contract dropped $0.37 or 0.58% to $63.76 per barrel, and the US crude oil futures contract fell $0.28 or 0.47% to $59.16 per barrel. The market is also concerned about the tariff threat from Greenland and the potential trade war between the US and Europe, as well as the risk of damage to Russian infrastructure and distillate supply due to cold weather [4]. - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in December increased by 17% compared to November. Angola's crude oil exports in March are expected to be 1.09 million barrels per day. Oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in December decreased from 5.09 million tons in November to 3.98 million tons. The restart of the No. 6 unit of Japan's Kashiwazaki - Kariwa Nuclear Power Station may be postponed due to a malfunction in the control rod extraction prevention function [4][5]. 2. Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week ending January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels (a 0.81% increase), the four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 19.98 million barrels per day (a 1.14% decrease year - on - year), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels (a 0.05% increase), and commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending January 9 were 8.977 million barrels, higher than the expected 3.565 million barrels and the previous value of 7.702 million barrels. EIA distillate inventories were - 29,000 barrels, lower than the expected 512,000 barrels and the previous value of 5.594 million barrels [5]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events this week. Although Trump's attitude has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be fully excluded. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, the overall waterborne inventory has decreased month - on - month but is higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose, with the WTI and Brent markets decoupled. In terms of refinery profits, the sharp rise in European natural gas has strengthened the cracking of European diesel, and the overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the rising crude oil prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain high [5].